Archive for the ‘Bloody Oil’ Category

It’s the oil, stupid

April 2, 2013
Syria’s oil wealth: The  Global and Regional Conflict on Oil and Gas  
 
 


Discovery of 14 oil basins in Syrian territorial waters, .. Information revealed by Dr. Imad Fawzi Shuaibi

دام برس – اياد الجاجة :
يكشف الدكتور عماد فوزي الشعيبي رئيس مركز الدراسات والمعطيات الإستراتيجية في دمشق عن اكتشاف 14 حوضاً نفطياً في المياه الإقليمية السورية، في ظل تعتيم على نتائج المسح الذي أجرته شركة نرويجية.
وضمن حلقة من برنامج “حوار الساعة” على قناة “الميادين” قال الشعيبي “إن مسحاً تأشيرياً لمنطقة الساحل السوري لما يقارب 5000 كيلو متر مربع قامت به شركة نرويجية تدعى “انسيس” توصل إلى اكتشاف 14 حقلاً نفطياً”.
الشعيبي كشف أن من بين الحقول الـ 14 “هناك أربعة حقول من المنطقة الممتدة من الحدود اللبنانية إلى منطقة بانياس تضم إنتاجاً نفطياً يعادل إنتاج دولة الكويت من النفط، ومجموعه يتخطى ما هو موجود في لبنان وقبرص وإسرائيل مجتمعين”.
واعتبر الشعيبي أن هذا المخزون النفطي هو “نقمة”، متابعاً “السؤال هو هل من المسموح أن تمتلك دولة واحدة كل هذا؟”.
كلام الشعيبي يطرح تساؤلات حول دور المخزون النفطي والغازي الموجود في سورية والغير مستثمر في الأزمة التي تشهدها البلاد، حيث تم اكتشاف آبار غاز في منطقة ريفي حمص ودمشق باحتياطيات كبيرة، بالإضافة إلى ما يحكى عن حرب انابيب الغاز وموقع سورية الاستراتيجي لمد هذه الخطوط.
سورية تتهم المجموعات المسلحة المعارضة بمهاجمة آبار النفط وسرقتها في سياق ميداني، أضرمت مجموعات مسلحة النار في ثلاثة آبار نفطية في منطقة دير الزور، حيث أعلن مصدر مسؤول في وزارة النفط السورية أن “ذلك يتسبب بخسارة يومية، تقدر بأكثر من أربعة آلاف برميل من النفط و52 ألف متر مكعب من الغاز” موضحاً أن “هذا التعدي يأتي بهدف سرقة النفط وبيعه”.
أما الإحراق بحسب المصادر السورية الرسمية فكان نتيجة فتح المسلحين بعض الآبار عشوائياً، ما أدى إلى نشوب خلاف بينهم على تقاسم النفط المسروق منها فقاموا بإشعال النيران فيها.
أضرار الإعتداء بحسب المصدر الرسمي يتعدى الخسائر الاقتصادية، فالبلد الذي يعيش أزمة دموية تجاوز عمرها العامين، قد يكون أمام آثار بيئية سلبية على الرغم من مسارعة شركة الفرات للنفط على معالجة الأمر، حيث قالت إنها نجحت منذ بداية الأزمة في إطفاء ستة من أصل تسعة آبار تم إحراقها.
المصدر : الميادين

full vedio

 

 
 

ألغاز اللّغز الذي لم يعد لُغزًا …د. حياة الحويك عطية

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لم يعد الغاز،كونه، جوهر الصراع القائم في سورية موضع نقاش، وذلك ضمن السياق الدولي الذي أعادنا منذ التسعينيات الى مقولة كيسنجر: انه النفط يا غبي،
مستبدلة النفط بالغاز. غير أن ما تتوقعه الأوساط الأوروبية حاليا من أزمة بدأت مراحلها الأولى بين تركيا واليونان حول مخزون الغاز المرشح للتأزيم في بحر ايجه و المتوسط، بعد الأزمة الأخرى بين تركيا وقبرص حول المشكلة نفسها.
سياقات تطرح سؤالا يصوغه المنطق الاستراتيجي الذي يحلو لهواة التضليل أن يسموه نظرية المؤامرة: هل كان من باب الحظ أن يقع الانهيار الاقتصادي في اليونان والآن في قبرص؟ وهل تكون الشركات المتعددة الجنسيات التي لن يتم استخراج الغاز خارج سيادتها ببعيدة أو بعاجزة عن تفعيل هذه الأزمات؟
 
وبالانتقال الى سورية، وهي ما يهمنا بالدرجة الأولى، فان الأمر يعيدني الى عبارة سمعتها من أحد المعارضين السوريين الوطنيين في باريس قبل عامين: لا تخافوا لن يدمروا سورية، لأن هدف التدمير هو مناقصات اعادة البناء ونحن لسنا ليبيا – الغاز، ولا عراق – النفط، كي يطمعوا بثرواتنا عبر الهيمنة واعادة البناء.
وها نحن اليوم نسمع عن مؤتمرات اعادة الاعمار الأول منها عقد في الامارات والثاني يهيأ له حاليا، لاعداد توزيع الكعكة قبل نضجها بفترة لا تزال طويلة. الشركات تفرك أكفها وتتهيأ كلها لاعادة الاعمار، إما مقابل الثروات الموجودة، وإما مقابل ديون تسدد لاحقا من دخل الغاز المقبل.
منذ البداية كان تمرير خط الغاز القطري عبر سورية الى المتوسط الى أوروبا لتحرير القارة العجوز من التبعية للغاز الروسي، هو المطلب الرئيسي لعدم تفجير بركان الدمار المسمى ربيعا.
ففي آخر زيارة قام بها الرئيس السوري الى فرنسا، استقبل ظاهريا بحفاوة كبيرة، وأعطي فرصة الحديث لمدة ساعة ونصف الساعة على شاشة التلفزيون الفرنسي، واستقبلت زوجته في لقاء ثقافي حول حوار الحضارات والثقافات نادرا ما يخصص لزوجة ضيف. غير أن اللقاء الأهم الذي كان قد رتبه ساركوزي من الباب الخلفي لقصر الاليزيه- كي يظل سريا عن الاعلام – هو لقاء يجمع الرئيسين وحمد بن جاسم لطرح مطلب تمرير انبوب الغاز القطري، وعندما رفض الأسد ذلك خرج الجميع متجهمين وقال الذين سربوا الخبر من الاليزيه بأن الحبل قد انقطع، وأن على سورية أن تتوقع بداية تفجير قريب.
وعندما كان جون كيري يتحدث مؤخرا عن محاولته اقناع الرئيس الاسد بتغيير مواقفه، لتليين الوضع والاقتراب من الحل، كان ذلك الاعلان يتعلق بعدة شروط منها تمرير أنبوب الغاز القطري. ” اضافة الى تمرير انبوب الماء التركي الى اسرائيل وتقليص الجيش وفك الارتباط بمحور المقاومة – ايران – روسيا”.
لم يقتنع الاسد وعاد الخطاب الى التشدد. وواقع هذه المطالب لا تعني فقط الآني المتعلق باسرائيل، قطر، اوروبا وتركيا، بل تعني أيضا الاحتمال المقبل مع وصول سورية الى مرحلة استخراج الغاز المخزون عند شواطئها. فهل كان من الممكن لتركيا واسرائيل وأوروبا أن تتحمل نهضة اقتصادية في سورية التي كانت تملك أكبر جيش عربي متبق ولا تزال عقيدته العسكرية العداء لاسرائيل، وتملك نهضة اقتصادية تنموية قائمة على الانتاج لا على الريعية وعلى الاستهلاك ، ولا تخضع بالمقابل لاية ديون فيما يشكل حالة عربية وربما عالمثالثية فريدة ؟
بالتوازي ، بل بالتقاطع، هل يمكن للشركات المتعددة الجنسيات التي يصفها هيربرت تشيلر بانها مروية بصلصة أميركية أن تترك الثروة الغازية المقبلة خارج هيمنتها؟ والأسوأ أن تذهب الى محور غازٍ لبناني – ايراني – روسي، لا يعيد التوازن السياسي الى الساحة الدولية فحسب، بل يعيد ايضا التوازن الاقتصادي وذاك هو الأخطر.
وأخيرا ، لا آخرا ماذا سيكون وضع اسرائيل وحلفائها العرب في هذه المعادلة كلها؟
تلك خلفيات معركة سورية . معركة الحرب العالمية الثالثة. التي لا نقول أبدا أن الادارة السورية لم تخطئ عندما لم تعالج مسبقا نزع فتيلها داخليا، او على الاقل تجفيف كم النفط الذي كان يغرق قشها اليابس، ورص الصف اكثر لمواجهتها .
سورية الان – العرب اليوم 

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian  
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of this Blog!

Mali, Algeria, Libya: the real reason Britain signed up for war on Africa

February 17, 2013

The truth behind the ‘war on terror’ is that it is part of Western powers’ imperialistic quest to secure natural resource reserves for their corporations

By Patrick Kane
Huff Post
14 February 2013


With the start of 2013 the ‘war on terror’ has burst back into the headlines. The attack on a BP gas plant in Algeria sparked declarations from David Cameron which identified North Africa as the new front line.

Already the UK has backed military intervention in Mali and upgraded military support for Algeria and Libya. In Algeria, Cameron announced a strengthened ‘military partnership’ to combat terrorism and “improve security in the region”, and in Libya he pledged more British training for security forces and support for securing the country’s borders.

The reality of the never-ending ‘war on terror’ is that it is integrally bound up with an imperialistic drive for resources.

Central to understanding David Cameron’s rapid reaction to events in North Africa is a government document published in November last year to little or no fanfare.

That document is the UK’s Energy Security Strategy, released by the Department for Energy and Climate Change: the first time the UK has ever produced such a strategy. The document rings the alarm for the UK’s future energy security, stating, “Declining reserves of fossil fuels in the North Sea are making the UK increasingly dependent on imports at a time of rising global demand and increased resource competition”, which is leaving the UK “increasingly exposed to the pressures and risks of global markets”.

The point is illustrated with some dramatic statistics: UK oil production, which currently provides for 70% of UK oil demand, is “expected to decrease by 5% per year”, meaning that within 20 years the North Sea oil supplies will have run out, leaving the UK completely dependent upon imports, whilst global demand for oil is predicted to increase by 15% by 2035.
 
There will be even more competition for gas supplies, with global demand forecast to rise by 55% by 2035. Again, declining North Sea supplies mean that the UK will go from importing about 50% of the gas it uses currently “to nearly 70% by 2025”.

At international level, the document identifies the importance of “energy diplomacy” in securing UK supplies of oil and gas for the future. Energy diplomacy, it says, includes “maximising commercial opportunities” for UK corporations, forcing open new markets to guarantee them unrestricted access to valuable energy resources.

Here we get to the crux of the strategy: it is not the ordinary UK citizen that is being protected- for evidence look no further than the exorbitant energy bills crippling Britain’s poor- but the interests of UK corporations which supply the energy.

This ‘energy diplomacy’ is of course a euphemism for militaristic British foreign policy. This includes the provision of military aid and weapons sales to regimes which control strategic energy reserves regardless of how repressive and violent they may be, as well as the readiness to use military force against states or groups which threaten UK energy security interests or those of UK allies.

Of course, militaristic British policy focussed upon securing energy resources at the expense of human rights is not new, for evidence just look at Nigeria. What we are witnessing currently is an increased sense of urgency to take control of strategic energy resources.

The Ministry of Defence in 2010 laid out its analysis of future strategic threats to the UK, and predicted that in coming years major powers are “likely to use their defence forces to safeguard supplies [of hydrocarbons]”. It identified North Africa as a strategically important area where a key focus of European states’ engagement will be on securing access to energy resources.

The military cooperation agreements announced last month with Algeria and Libya are part of UK ‘energy diplomacy’ aimed at securing access to strategic resources in North Africa. Both countries are identified in the UK Energy Security Strategy as producers of gas and oil which are important trading partners and hence countries which are important to the UK’s energy security.

Algeria now supplies 5% of the UK’s gas needs, whilst Libya is not only an important trading partner, but is a country whose oil supply is so important to the global oil market that the price of oil rose by 10-20% when armed conflict erupted there in 2011. Before the conflict in Libya had even finished, it was reported that BP had begun talks with rebel leaders aimed at securing access to the country’s oil wealth, and the French foreign minister publicly stated that it was “fair and logical” for French companies to benefit after French military intervention in the country.

In Mali, France’s UK-backed intervention is in support of a regime which violently seized power in a coup d’etat last April which led to the country’s suspension from the African Union. Could the large, as yet unexploited uranium and oil reserves thought to be contained in the deserts of Northern Mali and Eastern Niger explain the eagerness to back such a regime?
For a clear example of the link between Western commercial energy interests and militarism in North Africa, just look over the border from Mali at Niger. Last week, the president of Niger announced that French special forces have been deployed to the country to protect the huge Arlit uranium mine owned by French multinational Areva, in response to instability in the region. French companies used to have exclusive access to uranium supplies in Niger, however a change in government policy in 2007 ended the exclusivity, meaning they now face competition from Chinese and Indian companies.

The truth behind the ‘war on terror’ is that it is part of Western powers’ imperialistic quest to secure natural resource reserves for their corporations. We should all fear for the peoples of energy-rich regions as the global resource grab plummets new depths.

 
River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian  
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of this Blog!

Assad to opponents … The game is over and approached the whistle

January 28, 2013
الاسد لأخصامه…انتهت اللعبة واقتربت صفارة الحكم

‏الإثنين‏، 28‏ كانون الثاني‏، 2013

أوقات الشام

محمد صادق الحسيني


انتهت معركة السيطرة على الطاقة وطرق تجارتها عبر ادنى الارض السورية وباتت الشبكة السورية العنكبوتية امنة بالجيواستراتيجيا ومحصنة تجاه كل اشكال التهديد او الوعيد بتغيير موقعها الجيو سياسي او الديموغرافي كما يؤكد راسخون بعلم لعبة الشطرنج الهندية كما لعبة النرد الايرانية !


ولم يبق كما يجزم عارفون بخفايا الحرب الكونية المندلعة على سوريا منذ نحو سنتين بان نهاياتها الميدانية ايضا باتت قريبة بعد ان هزم الغرب في لعبة عض الاصابع وانكسر في معادلة الفوز بالضربة القاضية وقرر الانكفاء على الذات و اقترب موعد اشهاره راية التسليم بخسارته الرهان الحربي وهو بصدد الانتقال الى خوض ما بقي من المعركة بوجهة سياسية في محاولة للفوز ببعض النقاط !


وكما يؤكد لاعبون اساسيون في المواجهة المندلعة حول مستقبل سوريا ودورها في المعادلة الدولية المرتقبة فان ملوك اللعبة باتوا يبحثون عن اقصر الطرق واقلها خسارة للانسحاب الامن وباقل الخسائر !
خيار يوصلهم الى حماية بعض ما يمكن تامينه من مصالحهم عن طريق الحوار و امكانية عقد صفقة مع عدوهم التاريخي اللدود اي الاتحاد الروسي !


الايرانيون من جهتهم عقدوا العزم على ما يبدو بوضع حد لكل اشكال التخمينات حول موقفهم من احتمال اللجوء الى مقامرة التدخل الاجنبي عندما قطعوا الشك باليقين بالقول بان اي هجوم او عدوان على سوريا هو عدوان على ايران !
اما الروس فقد باتوا ينظرون للصراع على المشرق العربي عند البوابة السورية بمثابة المنعطف بين الحرب والسلام الدوليين !


وهذا يعني ببساطة اندلاع حرب باردة ستحصن القرار السوري بالضرورة من اية محاولة لمصادرته من اهله !
لذلك ولغيره من المعطيات اتجه اللاعبون الصغار من ادوات الصراع بالوكالة بالهجرة الى العراق في محاولة يائسة لتجريب ما هو مجرب اصلا هناك ومن جرب المجرب حلت به الندامة !

اما لعبة العبث ببلاد الازهر كما يحصل هذه الايام والمرجح استمرارها الى حين فهي احدى حرابهم الجديدة بعد ان فشلوا في السطو على القرار المصري فقرروا اضعاف كل اللاعبين هناك واستنزافهم موالاة ومعارضة في محاولة للهروب من فضيحة الخسارة الاستراتيجية في بلاد الشام !
يقول مصدر عميق الاطلاع على صناعة النفط الاستراتيجية وخبير دولي بشؤون الطاقة بان مياه البحر المتوسط على امتداد الساحل اللبناني من الناقورة الى طرابلس وامتدادا الى طول الساحل السوري ومن الساحلين معا حتى قبرص تشكل مخزنا استراتيجيا هو الاغنى بكميات هائلة من الطاقة لا ينضب مخزونه في عملية انتاج واستلاك مستمر حتى العام ٢٠٥٠ م !

ويعلق مطلع ومتابع لهذا الشان بان الانقلاب التركي على صداقة الاسد لحكومة اردوغان وغدر بعض مشيخات النفط والغاز الخليجية بالشقيق العربي السوري انما وقعتا لان السيد الغربي طلب منهما هذا الدور ووعهما بحصة مجزية منه بعد ان قرر الانقضاض على هذا المخزون الاستراتيجي حماية للمدلل الاسرائيلي ومنعا للروسي من الوصول الى هذا المعترك الجيواستراتيجي واخراج ايران المتمددة له بالمباشر او بالواسطة !

من هنا يعتقد الراسخون في علم سبر اعماق البحار و المتخصصون في علم الهندسة المعمارية لمعادلة الجيوبوليتيك والادوار التاريخية لملوك ورؤساء البلدان بان من خططوا لشطب سوريا من التاريخ الانساني او ازاحة ايران من الجغرافيا السياسية للمشرق العربي الاسلامي او منع لبنان وفلسطين من الاستقواء بمقاومته الشعبية لصناعة عزة ومنعة للامة ومنع روسيا من اعادة احياء دورها العالمي في نظام عالمي جديد متعدد الاقطاب كل ذلك طمعا بهذه البحيرة الغنية ومن اجل الاستحواذ عليها



الحرب على خط العرض 33 .. والغاز هو الهدف!
الحرب على خط العرض 33 .. سورية المفتاح


فاذا بالصمود السوري الاسطوري ومواكبة اصقائه وحلفائه الاقليميين والدوليين يطيحون بهذا الحلم الامبراطوري ويخرجون دولة الانجلو ساكسون الصهيونية الامريكية من سباق الهيمنة على مقدرات شعوب المتوسط !

نعم انتهت اللعبة واقتربت ساعة اطلاق صفارة الحكم بانتهاء المبارات التي جرت بالدم السوري القاني وباللحم السوري الحي ولكن جاء ايضا يوم الحساب واقتربت الساعة ولابد ان ينشق القمر ولله في خلقه شؤون ولكن اكثرهم لا يعقلون

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian  
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of this Blog!

Chavez, oil and the ‘Ketchup Revolution’

January 15, 2013
hugo_chavez[1]Posted on January 14, 2013
Yesterday, Argentine president Cristina Fernandez visited Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez in Havana hospital to show her respect and support for Chavez who is recovering from a cancer surgery in his pelvic region done on December 11, 2012.
“I came with the intention to show support and respect for a great friend of Argentina, Hugo Chavez,” she said.
On Friday, Peruvian president Ollanta Humala was in Havana to show his respect and support for Hugo Chavez. Both Fernandez and Humala also met Venezuelan VP and acting president Nicolas Maduro in Havana.

On January 4, 2013, Iranian president Dr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called VP Nicolas Maduro on phone to enquire about Chavez health while wishing him a fast recovery.

I’m sure, the Zionist TV evangelist Rev. Pat Robertson, must be praying for Hugo’s death based on his 2005 rant.”Hugo Chavez thinks we are trying to assassinate him. I think we really ought to go ahead and do it. This is a dangerous enemy to our south controlling a huge pool of oil. We don’t need a another 200 billion dollar war (Iraq). It’s whole lot easier to have some of the covert operatives (CIA, Mossad) to do the job and then get over with“.
Robertson is not known for the Christian mercy. He advised one of his listener in 2011 to divorce his terminal sick wife and start a new life. When it comes to Venezuelan oil reserve, Robertson was right. Venezuela holds recoverable oil reserves of 1.36 trillion barrels – more than American ‘cash-cow’, Saudi Arabia.
 
On April 11, 2002, when president Chavez was kidnapped at gunpoint and flown to an island prison – US Jewish ambassador in Havana, Charles Samuel Shapiro, was the first foreign diplomat who rushed to meet Pedro Carmona, the new president appointed by US oil cartel. Shapiro now heads the ‘Institute of the Americas’, a pro-Israel think tank.
What Robertson could not mention the other reason for his hatred toward Chavez – the western plantation owners and the Jewish Koch Brothers. Venezuela has millions of acres of unused land owned by US companies. One of them happens to be America’s powerful Heinz ketchup family empire, established by Henry J. Heinz, a German Jew.
Senator John Kerry’s wife since 1995, Thersea Theirstein Heinz, is widow of Republican Senator John Heinz. She has three sons from her first marriage and two daughters from her second marriage. She owns the Heinz empire. Senator John Kerry is Barack Obama’s nominee for the US secretary of state. Heinz reported a sale of $11.6 billion last year.

The Koch Brothers empire is worth $100 billion. It was setup by Harry Koch, a Jewish immigrant from Holland in Texas in 1888. Currently, it’s run by his two grandsons, Charles and David Koch. The Koch Industries is reportedly involved in oil/gas trading with Venezuela, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Algeria, Morocco, India and Nigeria. However, Koch Brothers became “evildoers” when Zionconservative Bloomberg Markets Magazine reported in October 2011 about their “secret and illegal” dealings with Tehran.

Lee Fang reported in The Nation on December 22, 2012 that after failing in his $125 million quest to oust Barack Obama, David Koch threatened American lawmakers to vote against aid to victims of Hurricane Sandy.

Chavez was born into a poor family of school teachers. As a good baseball player, he got a scholarship to study at Venezuelan Military Academy. After completing the degree course in Military Science and Engineering, Ch’avez joined the Army. In 1992, he was jailed for two years for his part in the failed military coup against pro-American Perez government. He was first elected President of the country in 1998. His revolutionary policies in controlling the country’s wealth irked the multi-national foreign corporations. Washington tried to bring a regime-change, but failed miserably. Chavez was re-elected in 2000, survived a coup in 2002 and emerged victorious from a recall vote in 2004. After Israeli invasion of Gaza Strip in December 2008 – Hugo Chavez kicked out Israeli Ambassador from Venezuela. During his address to UN General Assembly in September 2009, Chavez blasted the Zionist entity and Washington’s blind support for the Zionazi thugs – making the US and Israeli diplomats to walk-out during his speech. Hugo Chavez also support Tehran’s right to use nuclear technology for civilian purpose. Last year Chavez won his fourth term by defeaing his Crypto-Jewish opponent, Henrique Capriles Radonski by receiving 55% of the total vote cast.

Ben Cohen, in an article titled ‘Chavez and the Jews’ at Jewish JNS Org. on January 4, 2013 spilled his Jewish hatred toward Chavez for supporting Hamas, Hizballah, Iran – his critism of Israel and expeling Israeli ambassador in 2009.

“In attacking Israel, though, Chavez inadvertentally under mine the arguments of thos who say that anti-Zionism is one thing, anti-Semitism something else entirely. In many ways, Chavez’s attitude to Israel mirrored that of the Soviet Union. Just as the USSR marked its own Jews out as a fifth column during its decades-long propaganda against Zionism, so did Chavez,” wrote Cohen. I doubt very much if Cohen would like to know that five of Russia’s six top billionaires belong to his so-called “fifth column” – plus Zionist entity’s first president Dr. Chaim Wiezmann was a Zionist Jew from USSR. In reality, USSR and the Communist Party had always been controlled by the Jews. Find the proof here.

As the saying goes: “In the old day, antisemitism meant hating Jews, however, now antisemitism means whom Jews hate”. Adam Bilzerian has defined ‘Anti-Semitism’ excellently here.

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Is Russia is defending Syria? Or Syria defending Russia?

December 15, 2012
 
 

بوتين: انا مستعد لحماية سورية حتى داخل شوارع موسكو.. افهموا يا ذوي الألباب

‏الجمعة‏، 14‏ كانون الأول‏، 2012

خاص أوقات الشام
المحرر السياسي
تغير في الموقف الروسي.. هذا ما تحاول وسائل الاعلام ليل نهار تسويقه تارة بالاستناد الى فيديو لبغدانوف مزور وتارة الى تصريح من غير المؤكد صحته أو عدمه أو ظروفه أو القصد الحقيقي منه.. فالهزائم على الارض تتوالى و أخرها فشل معركة مطار دمشق و مقتل الاف المسلحين من ميليشيا الحر… لا بد من نصر اعلامي فالمعنويات تكاد تنهار.. وهو كذلك.. ( تغير في الموقف الروسي ) علّ هذا يرفع معنويات المعارضة المسلحة التي تكاد تنهار بعد سنتين من التمرد دون احراز اي نصر استراتيجي حقيقي يهدد النظام بشكل فعلي.

ولكن هل يمكن حقا أن تغير روسي موقفها ؟ الأن أو غدا أو في أي وقت ؟

علينا أولا أن نفهم ان المصالح الروسية في سوريا أصبحت مرتبطة وجوديا بالنظام السوري بعد مراهنتها عليه ب 3 فيتو و اللعب صولد على سوريا و قيادتها, وهي تدرك تماما أن تغيير موقفها أو عدم تغيير موقفها لن يفيدها أبدا لأن وصول معارضة اسطنبول للحكم سيرمي بالمصالح الروسية خارج سوريا بشكل كامل و الإتيان بأميركا و أصدقاء سوريا الألداء لينهبوا ما تبقى من خيرات في سوريا.

اللاعبون جميعهم لعبوا و راهنوا بكل ما يملكون.. فلا تغيير تركيا أو قطر لمواقفهم سيعطيهم أي فرصة للعب أي دور مستقبلي في سوريا أو مع سوريا في حال بقي النظام.

ولا تغيير روسيا لموقفها سيعطيها أي دور مستقبلي في سوريا في حال سقوط النظام.. و الروس يدركون ذلك..
ولكن لماذا تغير روسيا موقفها أصلا ؟

هل روسيا هي من تدافع عن سوريا ؟ أم أن سوريا هي من تدافع عن روسيا ؟
إن الأزمة السورية ليست بازارا للمصالح وإلا لتخلت روسيا منذ زمن بعيد عن سوريا, فما عرض عليها لتتخلى عن سوريا كان مغريا و مغريا جدا.. ولكن.. الموضوع السوري بالنسبة للروس هو مسألة أمن قومي من الممكن الدخول في حرب عالمية ثالثة لأجله و لعدة أسباب:


1- روسيا تتحكم بكامل أوربا عن طريق الغاز الذي يمد أوربا بالطاقة مما يوفر لها دخلا ماديا كبيرا بدلا للغاز الذي تبيعه للأوربيين و سيطرة استراتيجية على أوربا لأنها تستطيع عبر إيقاف الغاز شلّ أوربا بشكل كبير, الهدف من الإطاحة بالنظام السوري هو مد أنابيب للغاز القطري الى سواحل المتوسط ومن ثم أوربا عبر سوريا و التحرر من السيطرة الروسية على أوربا عبر سلاح الغاز, و هذا ما يفسر المواقف الهيستيرية و المتطرفة للألمان و للفرنسيين و غيرهم من الأوربيين, فمصدر للطاقة كقطر يمكن السيطرة عليه تماما كمورد أمن و دائم للطاقة, أفضل ألف مرة من مصدر للطاقة كروسيا يسيطر و لا يمكن السيطرة عليه.
2- التخوف الروسي من المد الاسلامي من تونس الى تركيا على حدودها الجنوبية و من ثم الى روسيا التي يقطنها 10 مليون مسلم, عدا عن عداء الروس للاسلاميين و قتالهم في الشيشان.
3- أعطى الملف السوري للروس فرصة ذهبية لا تتكرر للعودة كقوة عظمى عالمية بعد أن فقدوا نفوذهم لصالح الولايات المتحدة بعد سقوط الاتحاد السوفيتي.

لجميع هذه الأسباب و لأسباب أخرى فانتصار سوريا هو انتصار لروسيا و العكس صحيح, سوريا ليست دولة يمكن خسارتها كليبيا أو غيرها.. سوريا هي أهم خط دفاع عن أسوار موسكو..
روسيا لا يمكنها أن تبدل من موقفها تجاه سوريا, هي تنتصر أو تهزم مع النظام ولا حل أخر لديها, وهي على استعداد لخوض حرب عالمية ثالثة لأجل الدفاع عن أسوار موسكو..

لن يقاتل الروس على الأرض مع النظام ضد الميليشيات المسلحة, و لا داع لكي يقاتلوا أصلا,, فهم يعرفون عن طريق استخباراتهم العسكرية و منذ أن راهنوا بكل شيء في مجلس الأمن على النظام السوري أن لسوريا جيش قوي و شعب جبار قادر على الانتصار.. ولكنهم سيمنعون كل من يفكر بالتدخل العسكري في سوريا لدعم المسلحين..
ستستمر الفقاعات الاعلامية و الحرب النفسية و لكن على الجميع أن يتذكر ما قاله بوتين: انا مستعد لحماية سورية حتى داخل شوارع موسكو.
 

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Syria has Large Deposits of Oil Shale

December 9, 2012

Syria: Large amounts of oil shale in the region of Khanasser in the district Aleppo.

The Syrian Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources reported in 2010 that there is evidence for large amounts of oil shale in the region of Khanasser in the district of the Syrian city of Aleppo, amounting to about 37 billion tons, with a thickness of up to 240 meters, and that the oil therein would be of a very high quality and low sulphur content.

Is this one of the real reasons for the war of aggression by the West against Syria? Must the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad therefore be overthrown in order to clear the way for the Western oil companies?

The relevant Syrian minister Sufian Allaw said during a tour throughout this area in the southeast of the Syrian city of Aleppo, that the rocks with the embedded oil extend over an area of 150 square kilometres at first glance and could be even be enlarged.

The Syrian minister Sufian Allaw pointed out that the rocks would contain oil of different consistencies and could be used for power generation, for the oil and construction industries, for cement production and for the road building, in order to allow a significant economic use.
Sufian Allaw explained that the mining area is not used for agriculture and is also not inhabited, and therefore, there would be no environmental problems, even no problems for the needed water from the Euphrates.

The Syrian minister added that they finish the work on the first phase of this project, in which they have carried out 48 drillings in order to examine the thickness of the deposit and to see how much oil is present in the rocks.

Example of the degradation of oil shale:

Selective mining of horizontal oil shale 500x195 Syria has Large Deposits of Oil Shale

Selective mining of horizontal oil shale

Thereby, the profitability should be determined. The work on the exploration of the reservoir (deposit) began in the year 2008.

What a coincidence. Syria is not only the nodal point and the passageway for oil and gas pipelines on the way to Europe, but it also has even larger deposits of oil shale.

If that is not a motive for the Western powers, what is? Something like that must necessarily be brought under control. Where would we be if the Syrian government wants to use the proceeds from there for the country?

That is also one of the explanations as to why the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad was suddenly converted into an evil dictator who has to be removed by all means, like Saddam Hussein.

The resources belong to the world community and not Syria. Thereby, the West just means that these resources belong to the oil companies. This news was published on the website of the “Syrian Oil & Gas News” on 29 May 2010.

Coincidentally, shortly afterwards, the so-called rebellion against the Syrian government have begun, of which we meanwhile know now, that it is staged and controlled from abroad.

The “rebels” are not even Syrians, but are hired terrorists of the Al-CIAda (“al-Qaida”) from all possible countries with the duty to destabilize the Syrian government and country by terrorism, to spread chaos and to produce Syrian refugees in order that the (terrorist organisation) NATO has a reason to intervene as “peacemakers”.

Therefore, the Syrian city of Aleppo is so hard embattled.

What has Jake Sully said in the movie “AVATAR”?

“This is how it’s done. When people are sitting on shit that you want, you make ‘em your enemy. Then you justify taking it.”

Source: alles-schallundrauch.blogspot.de

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On the Oil that Burned the Arab Spring

November 19, 2012

An anti-government protester puts up posters of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah with an “X” during a funeral procession in east of Manama 16 September 2011. (Photo: Reuters – Hamad I Mohammed)

Published Friday, November 16, 2012
 

From the moment it started on its journey, beginning in Tunisia and passing through Egypt and other places, it appears as though the train of change is chugging on and there is no stopping it. That is the reality that many regimes – Arab and regional – have come to recognize.

Chief among them is Saudi Arabia, the “official sponsor” of the Arab system. But also Qatar, the economically ascendant oil principality eager to take over Saudi’s regional role after inheriting from the kingdom the honor of hosting the largest US military presence in the Gulf since the 2003 Iraq war.

Even Iran, with its strong regional presence and controversial nuclear program, has realized this. The Iranian regime, however, has a different style of interfering and exercising its influence based on its interests and alliances, but that would require a whole separate discussion, which is not possible in this article.

As such, it is necessary to search for solutions and ways to deal with the crises these regimes may face in their own countries after the uprisings of the “Arab Spring.”

The citizens of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are not better off socially or politically than the people who rose up. It is not like they, of all people, frolic in freedom and enjoy the virtues of democracy. Their populations might be tempted by the unprecedented wave of protests that brought the people back to the realm of political agency from which they had been excluded, a period when citizens were reduced to fodder for the whims of despots and subjects of their tyranny.

All these regimes have claimed to support the popular uprisings, even though their nature, structure, and practices are built on a culture hostile to democracy. Faced with this train whose progress they cannot stop, there is nothing better for these regimes than to sneak onto and ride the train, then seize it and control its direction either directly or through local agents.

With all their wealth and alliances with major powers, these regimes have succeeded to a large degree in controlling the movement for change, setting its tempo and directing its fate. The same thing happened in more than one place by turning peaceful popular movements toward militarization and fueling the fire of sectarian strife by supporting this or that side.

The way the regimes in the countries of the uprisings dealt with their people provided a fertile ground for these outside regimes to interfere. This course of events has frustrated a major opportunity for change which had actually begun as a spontaneous, popular movement in response to the circumstances that made this kind of explosion inevitable.

Work was done to gradually push matters into the hands of some of the political Islamists who have been dreaming of building a power structure in their own image. These movements are in line with the nature of the interfering regimes ideologically and in the political and economic choices that illustrate this ideology.

This is not a reductionist analysis or an exercise in intellectual luxury. It is part of the reality of what has happened, most notably in Tunisia and Egypt. That is, the countries whose people were able to achieve the first task of the revolution through non-violent means: toppling the head of the regime. But the revolutions were then infiltrated and their founders bypassed. There is an ongoing attempt to abort these revolutions by turning them into a power struggle rather than popular movements seeking to build a modern democratic state where freedoms flourish, human rights are respected, and the standard of living is improved.


Instead of the freedom and people’s sovereignty for which the revolutions erupted, the current post-revolution scenes are defined by restrictions on public freedom and monopolies on power. Dominating this scene are Islamists supported by petrodollars who submit to anti-nationalist agendas. They are supervised by self-appointed custodians, guided by the legacy of their “pious ancestors,” that seek to please God…and the United States.

The best proof of this subservience is the declaration made by the Egyptian Muslim Brothers that “they will respect and are completely committed to international treaties,” in reference to the Camp David Accords and Israel’s security.

Al-Nahda, Tunisia’s Muslim Brotherhood, also rejected a proposal to include in the draft of the new constitution an article stipulating criminalizing normalization with Israel under the pretext that the “Tunisian constitution is going to last longer than Israel,” according to one of its leaders.

All this is in addition to the economic policies that further marginalize the poor – a continuation of the policies of the toppled tyrants. This time, the tyranny is cloaked in religiosity.

It appears that the oil powers and faith peddlers on both sides of the Gulf – Iran and Arab states – along with Turkey’s neo-Ottomans were able to prevent the changes of the “Arab Spring” from taking root thanks to the complicity of the great powers and the deep-rooted, backwards structures in Arab societies.

The spontaneous popular movements did not translate into effective political participation – a necessary condition to produce a modern political consciousness that could pave the way toward a real democratic transition in the Arab world. It is obvious that this kind of transition is not to the liking of those who claim to support it and stand by the people calling for it.

Tareq Aziza is a Syrian writer.

The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect Al-Akhbar’s editorial policy.

This article is an edited translation from the Arabic Edition.

White House Covering Up Fast and Furious Program in Syria Aiding Al Qaeda

October 17, 2012

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Syria: NATO Sets its Sights on Gas Pipeline

October 16, 2012

It is as a geographer that Manlio Dinucci scrutinizes the war in Syria: the deployment of NATO forces, the ad hoc coalition that the Alliance put together and, especially, the strategic motive. What is really at stake in this conflict is not regime change, but shutting down the Mediterranean outlet for Iranian gas and controlling Syria’s gas reserves.
JPEG - 19.7 kbA declaration of war today would be incongruous. But to make one all it would take is a casus belli. Such as the mortar projectile which departed from Syria and made five victims in Turkey. Ankara retaliated with cannon fire, while the parliament authorized the Erdogan government to launch military operations in Syria. A blank check for war that NATO is prepared to pick up.

The Atlantic Council denounced the “Syrian regime’s recent aggressive acts at NATO’s southeastern border“, itching to trigger Article 5, stating that an attack on one member is viewed as an attack on all. But, as it is, “non-Article 5” is already in effect: introduced during the war against Yugoslavia and applied against Afghanistan and Libya, it allows for operations not covered by Article 5, outside the territory of the Alliance.

Indeed, the images of the buildings in Damascus and Aleppo devastated by powerful explosives leave no doubt that it was not the work of mere rebels, but that of infiltrated professional soldiers.

Approximately 200 specialists of the British SAS and SBS elite forces -reports the Daily Star– have been operating for months inside Syria, alongside U.S. and French units. The shock troops are composed by a gaggle of armed Islamist groups (until yesterday labeled by Washington as “terrorists“) from Afghanistan, Bosnia, Chechnya, Libya and other countries. In the group of Abu Omar al-Chechen -reports theGuardian correspondent in Aleppo- the orders are given in Arabic, but have to be translated into Chechen, Tajik, Turkish, Saudi dialect, Urdu, French and other languages.
Carrying false passports (a CIA specialty), the fighters flock into the Turkish provinces of Adana and Hatay, bordering Syria, where the CIA has opened military training centers. The weapons come mostly from Saudi Arabia and Qatar which, as in Libya, also provides special forces. The operations command is located aboard NATO ships in the port of Alexandretta. Meanwhile, on Mount Cassioum, bordering Syria, NATO has built a new electronic espionage base, in addition to the Kisecik radar base and the Incirlik air base.

In Istanbul a propaganda center was opened, where Syrian dissidents formed by the U.S. State Department, fabricate news and videos that are broadcast by satellite networks. The NATO war against Syria is already taking place, predicated on the need to unshackle the country from the Assad regime. As in Libya, internal divisions were exacerbated in order to cause the collapse of the state, by exploiting the tragedy engulfing the population.

The goal is the same: Syria, Iran and Iraq signed an agreement in July 2011 for a gas pipeline that, by 2016, should connect the Iranian South Pars field, the largest in the world, to Syria and thus to the Mediterranean. Syria, where another large deposit has been discovered near Homs, can become a hub of alternative energy corridors to those going through Turkey and to other routes controlled by U.S. and European companies. This is the reason why they want to attack and occupy her.
In Turkey, it is very clear to the 129 MP’s (one-fourth) who are against the war and to the thousands of people who marched chanting “No to imperialist intervention in Syria.”
How many Italians can also see it, in parliament and among the population?

Manlio Dinucci

Source
Il Manifesto (Italy)

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Syria, Turkey, Israel and a Greater Middle East Energy War

October 12, 2012

Despite the miscarriage of NATO’s secret military operation against Syria, withdrawal by the West stumbles on two issues. Can Washington and its allies refrain from grabbing the Syrian gas reserves? And can they leave Syria in the position of being the only state in the region which escapes the control of the Muslim Brotherhood?

by F. William Engdahl



JPEG - 28.2 kb
In an emergency session of 4 October 2012, Turkey’s parliament passed a bill to authorize military action against Syria.

On October 3, 2012 the Turkish military launched repeated mortar shellings inside Syrian territory. The military action, which was used by the Turkish military, conveniently, to establish a ten-kilometer wide no-man’s land “buffer zone” inside Syria, was in response to the alleged killing by Syrian armed forces of several Turkish civilians along the border. There is widespread speculation that the one Syrian mortar that killed five Turkish civilians well might have been fired by Turkish-backed opposition forces intent on giving Turkey a pretext to move militarily, in military intelligence jargon, a ‘false flag’ operation. [1]

 

Turkey’s Muslim Brotherhood-friendly Foreign Minister, the inscrutable Ahmet Davutoglu, is the government’s main architect of Turkey’s self-defeating strategy of toppling its former ally Bashar Al-Assad in Syria. [2]

According to one report since 2006 under the government of Islamist Sunni Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his pro-Brotherhood AKP party, Turkey has become a new center for the Global Muslim Brotherhood [3].

A well-informed Istanbul source relates the report that before the last Turkish elections, Erdogan’s AKP received a “donation” of $10 billion from the Saudi monarchy, the heart of world jihadist Salafism under the strict fundamentalist cloak of Wahabism [4].

Since the 1950’s when the CIA brought leading members in exile of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood to Saudi Arabia there has been a fusion between the Saudi brand of Wahabism and the aggressive jihadist fundamentalism of the Brotherhood [5].

President Eisenhower in the Oval Office with Muslim delegates,
1953, after July revolution.
Said Ramadan, the Son in-law of Hassan Al-Bana the founder of
Brotherhood, is second from the right.
في أقصي اليمين سعيد رمضان في ضيافة أيزنهاور داخل البيت الأبيض

The Turkish response to the single Syrian mortar shell, which was met with an immediate Syrian apology for the incident, borders on a full-scale war between two nations which until last year were historically, culturally, economically and even in religious terms, closest of allies.

That war danger is ever more serious. Turkey is a full member of NATO whose charter explicitly states, an attack against one NATO state is an attack against all. The fact that nuclear-armed Russia and China both have made defense of the Syrian Bashar al-Assad regime a strategic priority puts the specter of a World War closer than most of us would like to imagine.

In a December 2011 analysis of the competing forces in the region, former CIA analyst Philip Giraldi made the following prescient observation:

NATO is already clandestinely engaged in the Syrian conflict, with Turkey taking the lead as U.S. proxy. Ankara’s foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, has openly admitted that his country is prepared to invade as soon as there is agreement among the Western allies to do so. The intervention would be based on humanitarian principles, to defend the civilian population based on the “responsibility to protect” doctrine that was invoked to justify Libya. Turkish sources suggest that intervention would start with creation of a buffer zone along the Turkish-Syrian border and then be expanded. Aleppo, Syria’s largest and most cosmopolitan city, would be the crown jewel targeted by liberation forces.

Unmarked NATO warplanes are arriving at Turkish military bases close to Iskenderum on the Syrian border, delivering weapons from the late Muammar Gaddafi’s arsenals as well as volunteers from the Libyan Transitional National Council who are experienced in pitting local volunteers against trained soldiers, a skill they acquired confronting Gaddafi’s army. Iskenderum is also the seat of the Free Syrian Army, the armed wing of the Syrian National Council. French and British special forces trainers are on the ground, assisting the Syrian rebels while the CIA and U.S. Spec Ops are providing communications equipment and intelligence to assist the rebel cause, enabling the fighters to avoid concentrations of Syrian soldiers” [6].

Little noted was the fact that at the same day as Turkey launched her over-proportional response in the form of a military attack on Syrian territory, one which was still ongoing as of this writing, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) undertook what was apparently an action to divert Syria’s attention from Turkey and to create the horror scenario of a two-front war just as Germany faced in two world wars. The IDF made a significant troop buildup on the strategic Golan Heights bordering the two countries, which, since Israel took it in the 1967 war, has been an area of no tension [7].

The unfolding new phase of direct foreign military intervention by Turkey, supported de facto by Israel’s right-wing Netanyahu regime, curiously enough follows to the letter a scenario outlined by a prominent Washington neo-conservative Think Tank, The Brookings Institution. In their March 2012 strategy white paper, Saving Syria: Assessing Options for Regime Change, Brookings geo-political strategists laid forth a plan to misuse so-called humanitarian concern over civilian deaths, as in Libya in 2011, to justify an aggressive military intervention into Syria, something not done before this [8].

The Brookings report states the following scenario:

Israel could posture forces on or near the Golan Heights and, in so doing, might divert regime forces from suppressing the opposition. This posture may conjure fears in the Assad regime of a multi-front war, particularly if Turkey is willing to do the same on its border and if the Syrian opposition is being fed a steady diet of arms and training [9].

This seems to be precisely what is unfolding in the early days of October 2012. The authors of the Brookings report are tied to some of the more prominent neo-conservative warhawks behind the Bush-Cheney war on Iraq. Their sponsor, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, includes current foreign policy advisers to Republican right-wing candidate Mitt Romney, the open favorite candidate of Israel’s Netanyahu.

The Brookings Saban Center for Middle East Policy which issued the report, is the creation of a major donation from Haim Saban, an Israeli-American media billionaire who also owns the huge German Pro7 media giant. Haim Saban is open about his aim to promote specific Israeli interests with his philanthropy. The New York Times once called Saban, “a tireless cheerleader for Israel.” Saban told the same newspaper in an interview in 2004, “I’m a one-issue guy and my issue is Israel” [10].”

The scholars at Saban as well as its board have a clear neo-conservative and Likud party bias. They include, past or present, Shlomo Yanai, former head of military planning, Israel Defense Forces; Martin Indyk, former US Ambassador to Israel and founder of the pro-Israel Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), a major Likud policy lobby in Washington. Visiting fellows have included Avi Dicter, former head of Israel’s Shin Bet; Yosef Kupperwasser, former Head, Research Department, Israeli Defense Force’s Directorate of Military Intelligence. Resident scholars also include Bruce Riedel, a 30 year CIA Middle East expert and Obama Afghan adviser [11]; Kenneth Pollack, another former CIA Middle East expert who was indicted in an Israel espionage scandal when he was a national security official with the Bush Administration [12].

Why would Israel want to get rid of the “enemy she knows,” Bashar al-Assad, for a regime controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood? Then Israel’s security would seemingly be threatened by the emergence of hard-line Muslim Brotherhood regimes in Egypt to her south and Syria to her North, perhaps soon also in Jordan.

The geopolitical dimension

The significant question to be asked at this point is what could bind Israel, Turkey, Qatar in a form of unholy alliance on the one side, and Assad’s Syria, Iran, Russia and China on the other side, in such deadly confrontation over the political future of Syria?

One answer is energy geopolitics.

What has yet to be fully appreciated in geopolitical assessments of the Middle East is the dramatically rising importance of the control of natural gas to the future of not only Middle East gas producing countries, but also of the EU and Eurasia including Russia as producer and China as consumer.

Natural gas is rapidly becoming the “clean energy” of choice to replace coal and nuclear electric generation across the European Union, most especially since Germany’s decision to phase out nuclear after the Fukushima disaster. Gas is regarded as far more “environmentally friendly” in terms of its so-called “carbon footprint.” The only realistic way EU governments, from Germany to France to Italy to Spain, will be able to meet EU mandated CO2 reduction targets by 2020 is a major shift to burning gas instead of coal. Gas reduces CO2 emissions by 50-60% over coal [13]. Given that the economic cost of using gas instead of wind or other alternative energy forms is dramatically lower, gas is rapidly becoming the energy of demand for the EU, the biggest emerging gas market in the world.

Huge gas resource discoveries in Israel, in Qatar and in Syria combined with the emergence of the EU as the world’s potentially largest natural gas consumer, combine to create the seeds of the present geopolitical clash over the Assad regime.

Syria-Iran-Iraq Gas pipeline

In July 2011, as the NATO and Gulf states’ destabilization operations against Assad in Syria were in full swing, the governments of Syria, Iran and Iraq signed an historic gas pipeline energy agreement which went largely unnoticed amid CNN reports of the Syrian unrest. The pipeline, envisioned to cost $10 billion and take three years to complete, would run from the Iranian Port Assalouyeh near the South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf, to Damascus in Syria via Iraq territory. Iran ultimately plans then to extend the pipeline from Damascus to Lebanon’s Mediterranean port where it would be delivered to EU markets. Syria would buy Iranian gas along with a current Iraqi agreement to buy Iranian gas from Iran’s part of South Pars field.

South Pars, whose gas reserves lie in a huge field that is divided between Qatar and Iran in the Gulf, is believed to be the world’s largest single gas field [14]. De facto it would be a Shi’ite gas pipeline from Shi’ite Iran via Shi’ite-majority Iraq onto Shi’ite-friendly Alawite Al-Assad’s Syria.

Adding to the geopolitical drama is the fact that the South Pars gas find lies smack in the middle of the territorial divide in the Persian Gulf between Shi’ite Iran and the Sunni Salafist Qatar. Qatar also just happens to be a command hub for the Pentagon’s US Central Command, headquarters of United States Air Forces Central, No. 83 Expeditionary Air Group RAF, and the 379th Air Expeditionary Wing of the USAF. In brief Qatar, in addition to owning and hosting the anti-Al-Assad TV station Al-Jazeera [15], which beams anti-Syria propaganda across the Arab world, Qatar is tightly linked to the US and NATO military presence in the Gulf.

Qatar apparently has other plans with their share of the South Pars field than joining up with Iran, Syria and Iraq to pool efforts. Qatar has no interest in the success of the Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline, which would be entirely independent of Qatar or Turkey transit routes to the opening EU markets. In fact it is doing everything possible to sabotage it, up to and including arming Syria’s rag-tag “opposition” fighters, many of them Jihadists sent in from other countries including Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Libya.

Further adding to Qatar’s determination to destroy the Syria-Iran-Iraq gas cooperation is the discovery in August 2011 by Syrian exploration companies of a huge new gas field in Qara near the border with Lebanon and near to the Russian-leased Naval port of Tarsus on the Syrian Mediterranean [16].

Any export of Syrian or Iranian gas to the EU would go through the Russian-tied port of Tarsus. According to informed Algerian sources, the new Syrian gas discoveries, though the Damascus government is downplaying it, are believed to equal or exceed those of Qatar.

As Asia Times’ knowledgeable analyst Pepe Escobar pointed out in a recent piece, Qatar’s scheme calls for export of its huge gas reserves via Jordan’s Gulf of Aqaba, a country where a Muslim Brotherhood threat to the dictatorship of the King is also threatening. The Emir of Qatar has apparently cut a deal with the Muslim Brotherhood in which he backs their international expansion in return for a pact of peace at home in Qatar. A Muslim Brotherhood regime in Jordan and also in Syria, backed by Qatar, would change the entire geopolitics of the world gas market suddenly and decisively in Qatar’s favor and to the disadvantage of Russia, Syria, Iran and Iraq [17]. That would also be a staggering negative blow to China.

As Escobar points out, “it’s clear what Qatar is aiming at: to kill the US$10 billion Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline, a deal that was clinched even as the Syria uprising was already underway. Here we see Qatar in direct competition with both Iran (as a producer) and Syria (as a destination), and to a lesser extent, Iraq (as a transit country). It’s useful to remember that Tehran and Baghdad are adamantly against regime change in Damascus.” He adds, “if there’s regime change in Syria – helped by the Qatari-proposed invasion – things get much easier in Pipelineistan terms. A more than probable Muslim Brotherhood (MB) post-Assad regime would more than welcome a Qatari pipeline. And that would make an extension to Turkey much easier [18].”

The Israeli Gas dilemma

Further complicating the entire picture is the recent discovery of huge offshore Israeli natural gas resources.

The Tamar natural gas field off the coast of northern Israel is expected to begin yielding gas for Israel’s use in late 2012. The game-changer was a dramatic discovery in late 2010 of an enormous natural gas field offshore of Israel in what geologists call the Levant or Levantine Basin. In October 2010 Israel discovered a massive “super-giant” gas field offshore in what it declares is its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) [19].

The find is some 84 miles west of the Haifa port and three miles deep. They named it Leviathan after the Biblical sea monster. Three Israeli energy companies in cooperation with the Houston Texas Noble Energy announced initial estimates that the field contained 16 trillion cubic feet of gas—making it the world’s biggest deep-water gas find in a decade, adding more discredit to “peak oil” theories that the planet is about to see dramatic and permanent shortages of oil, gas and coal. To put the number in perspective, that one gas field, Leviathan, would hold enough reserves to supply Israel’s gas needs for 100 years [20].

Energy self-sufficiency had eluded the state of Israel since its founding in 1948. Abundant oil and gas exploration had repeatedly been undertaken with meager result. Unlike its energy-rich Arab neighbors, Israel seemed out of luck. Then in 2009 Israel’s Texas exploration partner, Noble Energy, discovered the Tamar field in the Levantine Basin some 50 miles west of Israel’s port of Haifa with an estimated 8.3 tcf (trillion cubic feet) of highest quality natural gas. Tamar was the world’s largest gas discovery in 2009.

JPEG - 56.4 kbAt the time, total Israeli gas reserves were estimated at only 1.5 tcf. Government estimates were that Israel’s sole operating field, Yam Tethys, which supplies about 70 percent of the country’s natural gas, would be depleted within three years.

With Tamar, prospects began to look considerably better. Then, just a year after Tamar, the same consortium led by Noble Energy struck the largest gas find in its decades-long history at Leviathan in the same Levantine geological basin. Present estimates are that the Leviathan field holds at least 17 tcf of gas. Israel went from a gas famine to feast in a matter of months [21].

Now Israel faces a strategic and very dangerous dilemma. Naturally Israel is none too excited to see al-Assad’s Syria, linked to Israel’s arch foe Iran and Iraq and Lebanon, out-compete an Israeli gas export to the EU markets. This could explain why Israel’s Netanyahu government has been messing inside Syria in the anti-al-Assad forces. However, a Muslim Brotherhood rule in Syria led by the organization around Mohammad Shaqfah would confront Israel with far more hostile neighbors now that the Muslim Brotherhood coup by Egypt’s President Mohamed Morsi has put a hostile regime on Israel’s southern border.

It is no secret that there is enmity bordering on hate between Netanyahu and the Obama Administration. The Obama White House and US State Department openly back the Muslim Brotherhood regime changes in the Middle East. Hillary Clinton’s meeting with Turkey’s Davutoglu in August this year was reportedly aimed at pushing Turkey to escalate its military intervention into Syria, but without direct US support owing to US election politics of wanting to avoid involvement in a new Middle East debacle [22].

State Department Deputy Chief of Staff Huma Abedin has been accused by several Republican Congress Representatives of ties to organizations controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood. Dalia Mogahed, Obama’s appointee to the Advisory Council on Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships, also a member of the US advisory council of the Department of Homeland Security, is openly linked to the Muslim Brotherhood and an open foe of Israel as well as calling for the toppling of Syria’s al-Assad [23]. Obama’s Washington definitely seems to be backing the Muslim Brotherhood horse in the race for control of the gas flows of the Middle East.

And the Russian role

Washington is walking a temporary tightrope hoping to weaken al-Assad fatally while not appearing directly involved. Russia for its part is playing a life and death game for the future of its most effective geopolitical lever—its role as the leading natural gas supplier to the EU. This year Russia’s state-owned Gazprom began delivery of Russian gas to northern Germany via Nord Stream gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea from a port near St. Petersburg. Strategically vital now for the future role of Russia as an EU gas supplier, is its ability to play a strategic role in exploiting the new-found gas reserves of its former Cold war client state, Syria. Moscow has long been engaged in promoting its South Stream gas pipeline into Europe as an alternative to the Washington Nabucco pipeline which was designed to leave Moscow out in the cold [24].

 
 

Already Gazprom is the largest natural gas supplier to the EU. Gazprom with Nord Stream and other lines plans to increase its gas supply to Europe this year by 12% to 155 billion cubic meters. It now controls 25% of the total European gas market and aims to reach 30% with completion of South Stream and other projects.

Rainer Seele, chairman of Germany’s Wintershall, the Gazprom partner in Nord Stream, suggested the geopolitical thinking behind the decision to join South Stream: “In the global race against Asian countries for raw materials, South Stream, like Nord Stream, will ensure access to energy resources which are vital to our economy.” But rather than Asia, the real focus of South Stream lies to the West. The ongoing battle between Russia’s South Stream and the Washington-backed Nabucco is intensely geopolitical. The winner will hold a major advantage in the future political terrain of Europe [25].

Now a major new option of Syria as a major source for Russian-managed gas flows to the EU has emerged. If al-Assad survives, Russia will be in the position as savior to play a decisive role in developing and exploiting the Syrian gas. Israel, where Russia also has major cards to play, could theoretically shift to back a Russian-Syrian-Iraqi-Iran gas consortium were Israel and Iran to reach some modus vivendi on the nuclear and other issues, not impossible were the political constellation in Israel to change after the coming elections. Turkey, which is presently in a deep internal battle between Davutoglu and President Gül on the one side and Erdogan on the other, is dependent on Russia’s Gazprom for some 40% of gas to its industry. Were Davutoglu and his faction to lose, Turkey could play a far more constructive role in the region as transit country for Syrian and Iranian gas.

The battle for the future control of Syria is at the heart of this enormous geopolitical war and tug of war. Its resolution will have enormous consequences for either world peace or endless war and conflict and slaughter. NATO member Turkey is playing with fire as is Qatar’s Emir, along with Israel’s Netanyahu and NATO members France and USA. Natural gas is the flammable ingredient that is fueling this insane scramble for energy in the region.

F. William Engdahl

[1] Reuters, Turkish artillery strikes on Syria continue for second day: Several Syrian soldiers killed in overnight attack; Turkey launched artillery strikes after mortar bomb fired from Syria killed five Turkish civilians, October 4, 2012.
[2] Hüsnü Mahalli, Davutoglu Betting on the Fall of Assad, Al Akhbar English, August 7, 2012.
[3] Steven G. Merley, Turkey, the Global Muslim Brotherhood, and the Gaza Flotilla, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, 2011, accessed in http://www.jcpa.org/text/Turkey_Mus…. See also for more ties between Erdogan’s Turkish AKP and the Musllim Brotherhood, GlobalMB, Syrian Ambassador Names Associate Of Turkish Prime Minister As Muslim Brotherhood Leader, May 25, 2011.
[4] The figure of $10 billion was relayed in a private discussion with the author by a Turkish businessman and political figure who asked to remain anonymous. Indian diplomats, including H.E. Gajendra Singh, former Ambassador to Ankara, have independently confirmed Saudi funding of the Turkish AKP. Presumably like most $10 billion cash grants, it came with heavy strings attached from Riyhad.
[5] F. William Engdahl, Salafism+CIA: The winning formula to destabilize Russia, the Middle East, Voltairenet.org, 13 September, 2012.
[6] Philip Giraldi, NATO vs Syria, December 19, 2011, The American Conservative.
[7] Linda Gradstein, Israel fears Syrian violence spilling over Golan Heights border, October 4, 2012.
[8] Linda Gradstein, Israel fears Syrian violence spilling over Golan Heights border, October 4, 2012.
[9] Ibid. p. 6.
[10] Andrew Ross Sorkin, Schlepping to Moguldom, September 5, 2004; see also Source Watch, Haim Saban.
[11] Ibid.
[12] Nathan Guttman, Bush officials subpoenaed in AIPAC trial, Jerusalem Post, March 13, 2006.
[13] Alexander Medvedev, Role of Gas in a Sustainable Energy Future, 2nd Ministerial Gas Forum, Doha, Qatar, 30 November, 2010.
[14] Hassan Hafidh and Benoit Faucon, Iraq, Iran, Syria Sign $10 Billion Gas-Pipeline Deal, The Wall Street Journal, July 25, 2011.
[15] “Wadah Khanfar, Al-Jazeera and the triumph of televised propaganda”, by Thierry Meyssan, Voltaire Network, 26 September 2011.
[16] Daily Star, Syria Announces Gas Discovery, August 17, 2011.
[17] Pepe Escobar, Why Qatar Wants to Invade Syria, Asia Times, September 27, 2012.
[18] Ibid.
[19] F. William Engdahl, The New Mediterranean Oil and Gas Bonanza – Part 1: Israel’s Levant Basin—a new geopolitical curse?, VoltaireNet.org, 20 February, 2012.
[20] Ibid.
[21] Ibid.
[22] The Economist, Turkey’s political in-fighting: Erdogan at bay: The Turkish prime minister faces new enemies both at home and abroad, Feb 25th 2012; see also Hillary Clinton, Remarks With Foreign Minister Davutoglu After Their Meeting, Conrad Hotel Istanbul, Turkey, August 11, 2012.
[23] CSP, Center Report Reveals Radical Islamist Views and Agenda of Senior State Department Official Huma Abedin’s Mother, Washington, Center for Security Policy, July 22, 2012. See also Aaron Klein, Muslim Brotherhood endorses Obama faith adviser: Gives thumbs up to ’Sister Mogahed’ for Twitter post on dead journalist, WorldNetDaily, April 29, 2012.
[24] F. William Engdahl, Moscow’s High Stakes Energy Geopolitics, Voltairenet.org, 15 November, 2011.
River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian
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