Archive for the ‘Russia’ Category


April 10, 2013

Posted on April 3, 2013 by

Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya

RT Op-Edge

A ship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet during large-scale military exercises Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered while flying back from the South African Republic to Moscow. (Screen shot of a video of Zvezda TV channel).(RIA Novosti)
A ship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet during large-scale military exercises Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered while flying back from the South African Republic to Moscow. (Screen shot of a video of Zvezda TV channel).


Is there a connection between events in Syria (maybe even US tension with North Korea) and Russia’s impromptu Black Sea war games that started on March 28, 2013?While on his way from Durban in South Africa, where the BRICS — Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa —announced they were forming a new development bank to challenge the IMF and World Bank, Russia’s Vladimir Putin gave the go ahead for unscheduled war games in the Black Sea. By themselves the games mean little, but in a global context they mean a lot.

According to the Kremlin, the war games involved about 7,000 Russian servicemen, Russian Special Forces, Russian Marines, and airborne rapid deployment troops. All of Russia’s different services were involved and used the exercises to test their interoperability. Over thirty Russian warships based out of the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol in the Crimean Peninsula and the Russian port of Novorossiysk in Krasnodar Krai will be participating. The objective of the games are to show that Russia could mobilize for any event at a moments notice.

The war games surprised the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Who even complained the Russian war games started in the Black Sea without prior notice. In fact, NATO asked Russia to be more open about its moves and give NATO Headquarters in Brussels notice of its military movements in the future. Alexander Vershbow, the American Deputy Secretary General of NATO, even demanded “maximum transparency” from Russia. One may ask, why the rattled bones?

Russian response to war plans against the Syrians?

Is it mere coincidence that Russia is flexing its muscles after NATO revealed it was developing contingency plans for a Libya-style intervention in Syria on March 20? Two days later, Israel and Turkey ended their diplomatic row through a timely agreement that was supposedly brokered by US President Barack Obama in twenty minutes while he was visiting Israel. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that with Obama’s help a deal was made with Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Erdogan to end the diplomatic rift over the Israeli attack on the Mavi Marmara in 2010.

Days later, this event was followed by the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) — a phoney opposition organization constructed by the US, UK, France, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey — being ceremoniously given Syria’s seat at the Arab League. In what appears to be an attempt at repeating the Libya scenario, the SNC is being recognized as the government of Syria. At the Arab League summit, the SNC’s leader Moaz Al-Khatib immediately called for NATO military intervention in coordination with Qatar’s call for regime change and military intervention in Damascus on March 26.

Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib.(AFP Photo / Karim Sahib)
Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib.(AFP Photo / Karim Sahib)

In a stage-managed move, the puppet SNC has asked the US, UK, France, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and NATO to enforce a no-fly zone with the aim of creating a SNC-controlled emirate or enclave in northern Syria. Al-Khatib has announced that he has talked to US Secretary of State John Kerry to use the NATO Patriot Missiles stationed in Turkey to create the no-fly zone over northern Syria. Effectively what he is talking about is the balkanization of Syria. Kerry seems to be on top of it. Victoria Nuland, the spokeswoman of the US Department of State, said the US is considering the request about imposing a no-fly zone. Even earlier, Kerry made a surprise visit to Baghdad and threatened the federal government in Iraq to fall into line with Washington’s regime change plans against Syria. He said he wanted the Iraqis to check Iranian passenger planes heading to Syria for weapons, but much more was said.

The American Empire’s satraps are all on the move. Qatar and Saudi Arabia no longer hide the fact that they are arming and funding the insurgents in Syria. In February, the UK and France lobbied the rest of the European Union to lift its Syrian arms embargo, so that they can openly arm the anti-government foreign fighters and militias that are trying to topple the Syrian government. Israel and Turkey have been forced to mend fences for the sake of the Empires war on the Syrians.

Obama realigns Israel and Turkey against Syria

The Israeli and Turkish rapprochement conveniently fits the aligning chessboard. Obama’s visit to Israel was about imperial politics to maintain the American Empire. As two hostile neighbours of Syria, Tel Aviv and Ankara will have deeper cooperation in the Empire’s objectives to topple the Syrian government. All of a sudden, the governments in both countries started complaining in line with one another about how the humanitarian situation in Syria was threatening them. In reality, Israel is not hosting any Syrian refugees (and oppresses Syrians under its occupation in the Golan) whereas Turkey has actually neglected many of its legal and financial obligations to the Syrian refugees it hosts on its territory and has tried to whitewash this by labeling them as foreign “guests.”

A child watches a woman washing a bassin at the Syrian refugee camp 5km from Diyarbakir, on the the way between Diyarbakir and Mardin, after snowfall, on January 9, 2013.(AFP Photo / Stringer)

A child watches a woman washing a bassin at the Syrian refugee camp 5km from Diyarbakir, on the the way between Diyarbakir and Mardin, after snowfall, on January 9, 2013.(AFP Photo / Stringer)
According to Agence France-Presse, the Israelis have even opened a military field hospital to help the insurgents topple the Syrian government. The military facility is located in an area named Fortification 105 in Syria’s Israeli-occupied Golan Heights (originally referred to as the Syrian Heights in Israel). It is essentially a support base for anti-government forces and only the tip of the iceberg in regards to Israeli involvement in Syria. Israel’s January strikes on Syria were the fruits of the cooperation between the Israelis and insurgent militias.

Sensing the suspicious eyes gazing at the Turkish government and perhaps getting unnerved by the Kremlin’s muscle flexing, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has rejected he claims that Tel Aviv and Ankara were closing ranks against Syria. Davutoglu must have been unaware of what was said in Israel about their rapprochement. Even though Netanyahu vowed never to apologize for the killing of Turkey’s citizens on the Mavi Marmara, Tel Aviv’s apology to Turkey was publicly justified by the Israeli government on the basis of addressing Syria through coordination with Turkey. Many of the suspicious eyes that turned to look at the Erdogan’s government over the deal with Israel are Turkish. Davutoglu actually lied for domestic consumption, knowing full well that the Turkish public would be outraged to know that Prime Minister Erdogan was really normalizing ties with Israel to topple the Syrian government.

The message(s) of the Russian war games

The American Empire is arranging the geopolitical chessboard with is satraps in its ongoing war on Syria. Perhaps it plans on using Israel to do a re-play of the Suez Crisis. In 1956, after Egypt nationalized the Suez Canal, the UK and France drew a plan with Israel to annex the Suez Canal by getting Israel to attack Egypt and then claiming to intervene militarily as concerned parties who wanted to keep the Suez Canal safe and open for international maritime traffic. A new assault against Syria under the banners of the Israelis is possible and could be used as an excuse for a Turkish and NATO “humanitarian invasion” that could result in the creation of a northern humanitarian buffer zone (or a broader war).

A pattern can be depicted from all these events. At the start of 2013, Russia held major naval drills in the Eastern Mediterranean against a backdrop of tension between Moscow and the US-led NATO and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) coalition that has been destabilizing Syria. After the US and its anti-Syrian coalition threatened to intervene militarily and deployed Patriot missiles on Turkey’s southern border with Syria, a Russian naval flotilla was dispatched off the Syrian coast to send a strong message to Washington not to have any ideas of starting another war. In turn, the US and its allies tried to save face by spreading rumours that the Kremlin was preparing to evacuate Russian citizens from Syria, because the Syrian government was going to collapse and the situation was going to get critical.
A ship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet during large-scale military exercises Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered while flying back from the South African Republic to Moscow. (Screen shot of a video of Zvezda TV channel).(RIA Novosti)
A ship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet during large-scale military exercises Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered while flying back from the South African Republic to Moscow. (Screen shot of a video of Zvezda TV channel).(RIA Novosti)

Paralleling the Russian war games in the Black Sea, the Russian Air Force held long-range flights across Russia. This included flights by Russian nuclear strategic bombers. On the other end of Eurasia, China also conducted its own surprise naval war games in the South China Sea. While the US and its allies portrayed the Chinese moves as a threat to Vietnam over disputed territory in the South China Sea, the timing of the naval deployment could be linked to either Syria (or North Korea) and coordinated with Russia to warn the US to keep the international peace.

In a sign of the decline of the American Empire, just before the Russian war games in the Black Sea, all the increasingly assertive BRICS leaders warned the US against any adventurism in Syria and other countries. The Russian and Chinese muscle flexing are messages that tell Washington that Beijing and Moscow are serious and mean what they say. At the same time, these events can be read as signs that the world-system is coming under new management.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian  
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Obama’s bitter options

April 7, 2013
كؤوس أوباما المرة
غالب قنديل
تستهلك الإمبراطورية الأميركية مزيدا من الوقت في محاولات يائسة لدفع الكؤوس المرة التي تنتظرها مع التسليم المستحق بهزيمتها في سورية بانهيار هيمنتها الأحادية على العالم و برضوخها لقدر الشراكة السياسية القهرية مع روسيا و الصين اللتين انتقلتا إلى الهجوم الاستراتيجي انطلاقا من صخرة الصمود السوري الثابتة في مجابهة الحرب العالمية التي تستهدف الدولة العربية السورية الحرة و المقاومة فما هي تلك الكؤوس المرة التي سيجبر الأميركيون على تجرعها.
أولا كشف الخبير العالمي في قضايا الطاقة البروفسور مايكل كلير الكثير عن خفايا الاهتمام الأميركي الاستراتيجي المتصاعد بمنطقة الباسفيك في دراسة كشف فيها عن وجود كميات هائلة من الغاز و النفط تحت الجزر المتنازع عليها بين الصين و اليابان و في هذا المجال الآسيوي الهام توجد دولة عملاقة هي الصين و دولة “عاصية ” متحالفة معها و تحظى بدعمها و هي مقيمة على لوائح الإرهاب الأميركية منذ زمن الحرب الباردة و لم تفلح جميع ادوات الحصارو التحريم في تركيعها و هي تغالب المشيئة الاستعمارية منذ انهيار الاتحاد السوفيتي و قد نجحت في سلسلة من المناورات الذكية بشأن ملفها النووي فقاومت الضغوط الأميركية والتفت عليها و بعد تفكيك مفاعلاتها النووية و ختمها بالاسمنت أعادت إنهاض مشروعها بعد حرب تموز 2006 و مع ظهور ملامح التبدل في التوازن العالمي و كوريا الديمقراطية هي دولة زوتشيه التي تعني بالكورية الاعتماد على الذات ، كناية عن شعب واسع العلم و الثقافة و معبء بقوة بفكرة الاستقلال و التطلع لتوحيد الوطن الكوري الذي مزقته الإمبريالية الأميركية في الخمسينات من القرن الماضي .
ثانيا مع تراكم مظاهر الفشل و الغطرسة الأميركيين في التصميم على مواصلة الحرب العدوانية التي تقودها الولايات المتحدة ضد الدولة الوطنية السورية قررت روسيا و الصين تسديد لكمة موجعة ترغم الإمبراطورية العجوز على استعادة شيء من العقلانية في سلوكها السياسي الأحمق الذي تبدى بانقلاب أوباما على التسوية المتفاهم عليها مع الروس بشأن وقف العدوان على سورية و الكف عن إرسال الإرهابيين و تزويدهم بالمال و السلاح و هو عرض تضمن دفع اوباما للاعتراف بالهزيمة مع حفظ ماء الوجه الأميركي تجاوبت معه سورية لتوفير التضحيات و الالام على شعبها لكن الولايات المتحدة التي انقلبت سوف تضطر لدفع كلفة أعلى من مجرد الإقرار بالفشل كما تشير الوقائع المتحولة .
بدعم روسي صيني و بمؤازرة سياسية واضحة من هذين الجبارين ترفع بيونغ يانغ التحدي في وجه الإمبراطورية العجوز الفاشلة بقيادة حفيد الزعيم التاريخي كيم إيل سونغ الذي أقام قلعة صناعية ضخمة أجبرت صواريخها الجاهزة باراك أوباما لطلب معونة بكين و موسكو في احتواء حدث أشد خطورة من ازمة الصواريخ الكوبية في الخمسينات من القرن الماضي .
ثالثا سوف يتوسع جدول الأعمال على طاولة المباحثات الصينية مع الإدارة الأميركية حول الأزمة الكورية بعدما اضطرت الولايات المتحدة للاعتراف بجدية التهديد الكوري بعد إنكار و اتخذت قرارها المعلن بنشر بطاريات الصواريخ المضادة للصواريخ تحسبا من تنفيذ الأمر القيادي المصادق عليه الذي تبلغته القيادة العليا للجيش و القوات المسلحة الكورية التي أعطت سلاحها الصاروخي إحداثيات عسكرية في قلب الولايات المتحدة و حملت القواعد الأميركية في آسيا كأهداف جاهزة للقصف .
مستقبل العالم سيكون في صلب التفاوض الدولي الذي يوشك ان ينطلق و بنود التفاوض تتركز من وجهة النظر الروسية الصينية على تصفية الهيمنة الأحادية الأميركية ووقف العدوان على سورية و الاعتراف الصريح بالهزيمة امامها و تفكيك منصات العدوان و هو ما سيؤذن بولادة مارد عربي هو سورية المقاومة بقيادة الرئيس الأسد و السير في طريق الاعتراف بقوتين نوويتين جديدتين هما كوريا و إيران و الرضوخ لشراكة مالية و اقتصادية جديدة مع مجموعة البريكس التي أطلقت استعدادها لتحرير علاقاتها الاقتصادية من آليات التحكم المالي و المصرفي الأميركي بعد قمتها الأخيرة فإما منظومة عالمية مستقلة و منافسة قابلة للتوسع او تغييرات هيكلية متفاهم عليها تنهي سيطرة نيويورك على شرايين العالم .

Syrian Korean Iranian alliance, reforming the map of the world

April 6, 2013

جديد السيد نون .. خارطة العالم تتشكل من جديد .. بتحالف سوري كوري ايراني

دام برس – اياد الجاجة :
امريكا حاولت ان توجد لها بديلا في المنطقة يحافظ على مصالحها وتتفرغ هي لمواجهة الصين وذكرنا وقتها ان الامريكيين قد اسسوا لقيام حلفين حلف بقيادة فرنسا ومشاركة تركيا لتقسيم بلاد الشام وإدخاله في الحلف وهذا هو من يقود الحرب على سوريا ،وحلف آخر بقيادة اسرائيل ويضم عرب البعير لمواجهة ايران على ان يجتمع الحلفان اولا بالحرب على سوريا ثم بعد الانتصار على سوريا كما حلموا يتوزع الحلفان كل حسب مهامه ،وبناء على قناعة امريكا بتحقيق الانتصار على سوريا وان مخططها سينجح بدأت التخلي عن المنطقة لتعزز تواجدها في بحر الصين لخوض معارك جديدة في كوريا .
ولكن ما الذي حدث؟
ان فشل امريكا وحلفائها في سوريا جعلها توحد الحلفين وتلغي الحلف الفرنسي التركي لتضم مهام الحلف الاخر وهو الاسرائيلي ودول البعير وتكون فرنسا وتركيا داعم لهذا الحلف على ان يتم استدراج مصر لاحقا .
كان الامريكي متيقنا بأنه سيحقق مخططاته لما هو مرصودا لها من قوى ومسلحين واموال ،ولكن صمود سوريا قاده الى التهلكة.
المخطط الامريكي كان يهدف لإنشاء حلف نووي تقوده اسرائيل ويستطيع هذا الحلف الوقوف بوجه ايران وروسيا وبالتالي تنفرد امريكا بالمواجهة مع الصين .
التصرف الروسي الصيني بمواجهة المخطط الامريكي.
في عام 2007 كان هناك اجتماعا مغلقا بين الجانب الروسي والصيني والسوري واتفق المجتمعون على اهم استراتيجية في هذا القرن وهي سحب التجارة الخارجية من اليد الامريكية.
وكانت خطة البحار الخمسة …التي طرحها الرئيس السوري وتتضمن اقامة نقاط استراتيجية في العالم تقوم باستقطاب الدول الناشئة لمنع السيطرة الامريكية عليها وتقرر ان تكون مركز هذه النقاط سوريا .
كان الجانب الروسي والصين على يقين بان الامريكي لن يترك الامر يمر بالسهولة وكان معروفا انه سينتقم من سوريا.
كانت النقاط الاستراتيجية لخطة تجارة البحار الخمس هي “سوريا ،واوكرانيا،وروسيا البيضاء، وفنزويلا ،وجنوب افريقيا” وهذه الدول اعتبرت هي مراكز تجمع المنتجات في العالم حيث يتم تشكيل اساطيل بحرية تجارية تعمل عمل سرفيس دائم وبذلك يتم ربط التجارة العالمية بشكل استراتيجي.
طرح الجانب الروسي والصيني مشروع معاهدة دفاع مشترك مع الحلف الاستراتيجي ولكن الجانب السوري طلب الابقاء على المعاهدة سرا كي لا تنشأ احلاف جديدة بقيادة امريكية وتم الالتزام بذلك والاكتفاء بإعلان المعاهدة الايرانية السورية التي دعمتها الصين وروسيا .
ماذا فعلت روسيا والصين في المواجهة مع الغرب؟
بدأت روسيا بتطوير انتاجها من الغاز وأيضا تجارتها واشترت حقول الغاز في دول رابطة الدول المستقلة مما حرم الامريكي من امكانية النفوذ الى الحدود الروسية طرح الايراني على اذربيجان مشروعا مشتركا هو نقل الغاز عبر اراضي ايران ثم نقله الى سوريا عبر العراق ، كانت تلك المشاريع تشكل صدمة للأوربيين الذين عرفوا ان مصيرهم اصبح محتوما بيد الروس ،وأما الجانب الصيني فقد دعم التوجه الكوري بضرورة رفع العقوبات عن كوريا واعتراف امريكا بحدود كوريا وإلغاء حالة الحرب .
كان الجانب الصيني يراقب بحذر ردود الفعل الامريكي الذي كان يحاول المستحيل كي يعيق التقدم الاقتصادي الصيني .وفعلا تبين بعد محادثات 1992 وحتى 2007 بان الامريكي هو يراوغ فقط لكسب الوقت .
استغل الجانب الكوري اهتمام الصين بأمنها القومي وزاد من تطويره لقواه وفعلا استطاعت كوريا ان تفجر القنبلة النووية وحاولت امريكا التغطية على ذلك لكن الكوريين اعادوا التجربة ثانية وأيضا طوروا مقدرتهم على نقل هذه الاسلحة.

سوريا وتغيير العالم:

اثناء الحرب على سوريا كان الامريكي يحاول جاهدا عدم خلق نقاط توتر جديدة كي يبقى مكرسا كل جهوده لأسقاط سوريا وكان ذلك من صالح الايرانيين والكوريين ، الذين استطاعوا العمل بحرية اكبر ودون معوقات تذكر .
طور الكوريون اسلحتهم وكذلك الايرانيون واما الروس فقد اعطوا السوريون كل مايحتاجون للانتصار من عتاد ومعلومات .
استطاعت سوريا الصمود ثم الانتصار وبات من المستحيل تحقيق النصر على السوريين وانتقلت القيادة في سوريا من الصمود الى التصدي والهجوم على معاقل العدو من عصابات ومرتزقة .

هنا جاء الايعاز الصيني للكوريين بان الوقت قد حان لحرب كسر العظم مع امريكا .اعلنت كوريا حالة الحرب مع اعلان خطة امريكا عبر “القمة العربية” بإنشاء حكومة منفى تطلب التدخل العسكري لاحقا.
كان اعلان الحرب من كوريا بمثابة الضربة القاضية للامريكي وقد فهم اللعبة .
الحليف البديل اسرائيل ..في الشرق الاوسط يقابله حليف نووي في شرق اسيا يهدد امريكا بكل مدنها ومصانعها.

ما هو الحل الروسي الصيني وفق هذه المعطيات؟

• ترى الصين بان من حق الكوريين ان يتوحدوا عبر استفتاء تشرف عليه وكالات محايدة تشارك فيها روسيا والصين .
• ترى الصين ان التوتر في المنطقة منشأه دول مارقة كقطر وإسرائيل .
• تعتبر روسيا ان حل الدولتين وعودة الجولان الى سوريا وإعادة الفلسطينيين الى بلادهم كفيل بنزع التوتر.
• تعتبر الصين ان دولة تايوان هي اراضي صينية يجب ان تعود الى الصين .
• تعتبر روسيا ان ايران دولة اقليمية كبرى ولها نفوذها الذي لا يستطيع احد انكاره وان من حقها تخصيب اليورانيوم للصناعة السلمية.
• ترى الصين ان دولا كدول الخليج تملك مخزون نفطي هائل يجب ان لا تبقى بيد افراد ويجب ان تحكم هذه الدول انظمة ديموقراطية وليس اسر حاكمة مرتبطة بامريكا.
هذه بعض الطروحات وهي ان تحققت تعنى ان مرحلة امريكا العالمية الى زوال فخروج امريكا من منطقة الشرق الاوسط هو بكل بساطة وقوع هذه المنطقة وأوروبا تحت النفوذ الروسي وأيضا خروج امريكا من كوريا الجنوبية وتايوان هو سيطرة الصين على شرق وجنوب اسيا .

ماذا يعني عدم القبول .

ان كوريا الشمالية تهدد امريكا وهذا التهديد سيزداد يوما بعد يوم ويصبح مشابها لتهديد حزب الله لإسرائيل الذي حولها من دولة تبحث عن السيطرة الى دولة تبحث عن القبة الحديدية لتحمي سكانها.
في الشرق الاوسط هزمت امريكا بكل وضوح ففي سوريا بدأت الامكانيات لإسقاط النظام مستحيلة وأموال امريكا وحلفاؤها لا يمكنها ان تسقطه وبالتالي بدأت الاموال تنفذ وبدأ الجيش العربي السوري يزداد قوة وكل يوم يمر يضعف حلفاء امريكا ويزداد الشعب والجيش السوري قوة ،وأما الحليف الروسي فهو يزداد تشددا ولم يعد يكتفي بالطلب من امريكا بالضغط على حلفائها بل قرر هو اخذ زمام المبادرة والإعلان انه سيمنع بالقوة توريد السلاح والمسلحين وسيفرض عقوبات على الدول التي تتدخل بالشأن السوري ،وهذا ما جعل الاوروبي ينسحب بسرعة ويعلن عدم موافقته على دعم الائتلاف وأيضا على توريد السلاح.
علان الحرب الامريكية على سوريا قد يكون خيارا امريكا للتخلص من التصعيد الكوري ولكن ما خبأه حلفاء سوريا كان مخيفا ، فقد سربت بعض الصحف الامريكية ان هناك اتفاق سري سوري كوري ايراني على عدم السماح لأمريكا بالتفرد بأي من الفرقاء وإعلان الحرب على احدهم يعني الحرب على الجميع وهذا يعني ان امريكا اذا تدخلت في سوريا تكون قد اشعلت ثلاث حروب دفعة واحدة منها حرب مباشرة عليها من قبل كوريا وحرب على قواعدها وأذنابها في الخليج وإسرائيل وحرب على القوات التي ستحارب سوريا.

هذه هي الخارطة العالمية الان وشيئا فشيئا يتضح الانتصار العالمي على الارهاب والظلم ورأس الحربه التي تكسرت عليها احقاد وكراهية الاستعمار هي سوريا الشامخة العزيزة .

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Syrian Conflict Reaches Stalemate

April 4, 2013


A man walks past damaged houses on a street filled with debris in Deir al-Zour, April 1, 2013. (photo by REUTERS/ Khalil Ashawi)

By: Ziad Haydar Translated from As-Safir (Lebanon).
اقرا المقال الأصلي باللغة العربية
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad sent a message to the BRICS group, which met last week. He called on them to “help end the violence in Syria immediately,” thus imparting a political role to the emerging international group. Things in Syria are at a standstill politically with regard to the “major players” and very active with regard to the “minor players.” It is a standstill that helps achieve short- and medium-range objectives, none of which serve Syria’s long-term interests.

In his letter, Assad called on the BRICS countries to “work together for an immediate halt to the violence in Syria in order to ensure the success of a political solution, which requires a clear international will as well as the draining of the sources of terrorism and the stopping of their funding and arming. …The Syrian people look forward to working with the BRICS as a power that seeks to promote peace, security and cooperation among nations, away from domination, dictates and injustice, which were used for decades on our people and nation.”

The letter comes after Syrian presidential adviser Bouthaina Shaaban visited both India and South Africa in March, and a similar trip by Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal al-Miqdad to Brazil, China and Russia, where he tried to obtain clear support from those countries.

Since the BRICS group was formed in the last decade, it has represented for Damascus a counterweight to the US-led Western axis, which controls and influences international and regional organizations. The BRICS group tends to not interfere in the internal affairs of other states or in civil wars. That became apparent during the Libyan crisis when the BRICS group opposed Western intervention without being able to prevent it, which weakened the BRICS influence. Damascus wishes to see that influence grow.

In international forums, the BRICS group is consistent with Russian policy, which supports the Geneva Accord signed last June, and prefers avoiding direct intervention. Diplomats and observers have noted that Russia’s role, despite its continuity and persistence, seems less aggressive. That may be because of the escalation by France and Britain — with US approval — to change the Syrian balance of power on the ground, something being pushed by Qatar and Turkey as was apparent in the Arab summit in Doha.

Russia is apparently waiting for a change in the balance of power in the Syrian opposition. Russian diplomats think that the opposition is being held together by external forces, without which it would quickly disintegrate. But nobody in Damascus knows what will be the next step or has put forth a vision. The Russians are sitting back and waiting for their opponents to “fail.” Moscow is convinced that neither side is able to achieve a decisive victory and that 50 mortar rounds on Damascus per week means that the conflict is taking a new dimension of brutality. That also means that both sides are losing.

Russian policy is not exactly like that of Damascus. The Syrian leadership has not accepted the Geneva Accord without reservation but considers it worthy of “discussion.” So matters will be decided by the developments on the ground. A Syrian oppositionist said to As-Safir that “there will be a military and political escalation that reaches its peak in two months.” The Syrian oppositionist residing in Damascus said that the escalation is fully consistent with the US desire to “completely weaken Syria and take it out of the regional strategic plan for decades.”

In this context, it is remarkable that the Russian military has kept its battleship in Beirut, even though two weeks ago its destination was Tartous. Russian diplomatic sources told As-Safir that “this is something normal. It is a routine measure designed to deepen the friendly relations and cooperation between Lebanon and Russia,” and that this matter has nothing to do with the discovery of an electronic spy system on the Syrian coast, believed to be Israeli, or that it is part of Russian military moves.

Diplomats acknowledge that amid the deadlock, there are clear Qatari and Turkish preparations for the day after the regime falls, if it does fall. The two conferences in Cairo and Istanbul were part of those preparations. The first conference wanted to showcase the presence of Alawites in the opposition. The second conference was attended by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and was aimed at Syria’s Turkmen.

The conferences wanted to narrow the differences between the “resigned” leader of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces Moaz al-Khatib and some of the coaltion’s blocs over increasing the representation of Syrian minorities and expanding the opposition structure. The Americans and the Russians agree that Khatib “is irreplaceable as a leader of the opposition” and seek to keep him in place, especially in face of the rising Islamist militants in the opposition and the rising Muslim Brotherhood movement worldwide.

The Qatari and Turkish effort is also part of “the day after” plan, which has started considering “sectarian quotas” similar to those in Iraq and Lebanon.

All that recalls what happened in the summer of 2011, when official Turkish delegates asked Damascus about its “informal” opinion regarding sectarian quotas, whereby the key military centers will be held by the Christian and Muslim minorities and the bigger sects be given the primary role in the economy and political process. The vision included the possibility that the Muslim Brotherhood will return to Syria. But those ideas were immediately rejected at the time.

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The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of this Blog!

"Russia is waiting for a change in the balance of power in the Syrian opposition"

April 4, 2013


“… Russia is apparently waiting for a change in the balance of power in the Syrian opposition. Russian diplomats think that the opposition is being held together by external forces, without which it would quickly disintegrate. But nobody in Damascus knows what will be the next step or has put forth a vision. The Russians are sitting back and waiting for their opponents to “fail.” Moscow is convinced that neither side is able to achieve a decisive victory and that 50 mortar rounds on Damascus per week means that the conflict is taking a new dimension of brutality. That also means that both sides are losing.Russian policy is not exactly like that of Damascus. The Syrian leadership has not accepted the Geneva Accord without reservation but considers it worthy of “discussion.” So matters will be decided by the developments on the ground. A Syrian oppositionist said to As-Safir that “there will be a military and political escalation that reaches its peak in two months.” The Syrian oppositionist residing in Damascus said that the escalation is fully consistent with the US desire to “completely weaken Syria and take it out of the regional strategic plan for decades.”
In this context, it is remarkable that the Russian military has kept its battleship in Beirut, even though two weeks ago its destination was Tartous. Russian diplomatic sources told As-Safir that “this is something normal. It is a routine measure designed to deepen the friendly relations and cooperation between Lebanon and Russia,” and that this matter has nothing to do with the discovery of an electronic spy system on the Syrian coast, believed to be Israeli, or that it is part of Russian military moves..…”

BRICS Summit draws clear red lines on Syria, Iran

April 3, 2013
April 3rd, 2013

(TheBricsPost) – The BRICS just became impossible to ignore. At the close of the Fifth annual BRICS Summit in Durban, South Africa last week, there was little question that this group of five fast-growing economies was underwriting an overhaul of the global economic and political order.
The eThekwini Declaration issued at summit’s end was couched in non-confrontational language, but it was manifestly clear that western hegemony and unipolarity were being targeted at this meeting.
The BRICS hit some major western sore spots by announcing the formation of a $50 billion jointly-funded development bank to rival the IMF and World Bank. Deals were signed to increase inter-BRICS trade in their own currencies, further eroding the US dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency.

A series of unmistakable challenges were dealt to old world leaders: reform your institutions and economies – or we’ll do it ourselves.

Intent on filling a leadership void in global economic and financial affairs, the BRICS also began to draw some firm political lines in the sand.

For starters, the summit was focused on development in Africa – a resource-rich continent where competing economic interests have drawn increasingly polarized geopolitical battle lines in the past few years. The BRICS were invited to the African table via their newest member state, South Africa, and have used this opportunity to fully back the African Union (AU).

The AU has been Africa’s attempt to integrate and unify the continent economically – via the establishment of a single currency and development fund that could bypass the very punishing IMF – and militarily – via the establishment of security/defense organizations and joint military forces, among other things.

AU success would necessarily mean less old-style western imperialism in the region, reducing exploitative foreign economic activities and excluding foreign forces like the US military’s African Command (AFRICOM) from engaging in the African military theater.

At the heart of the Summit’s agenda lies the BRICS’ determination to anchor any emerging global order in “multilateralism” – whether by demanding permanent seats within the UN Security Council, forging alternative economic constructs that will shift the balance of power their way, or proactively influencing outcomes in global conflict zones.

Syria and Iran

The Durban summit therefore was not going to ignore the two most prominent issues on UN Security Council’s docket – Syria and Iran.

Last week, the BRICS collectively rejected any further militarization of these problems, advocated political solutions negotiated through diplomatic initiatives, expressed concern over unilateral sanctions and warned against infringement on the “territorial integrity and sovereignty” of these nations.

The eThekwini Declaration says about Iran:
“We believe there is no alternative to a negotiated solution to the Iranian nuclear issue. We recognize Iran’s right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy consistent with its international obligations, and support resolution of the issues involved through political and diplomatic means and dialogue.”
And on Syria, the BRICS fully backed the Geneva principles as the framework for resolving the two-year conflict:

“We believe that the Joint Communiqué of the Geneva Action Group provides a basis for resolution of the Syrian crisis and reaffirm our opposition to any further militarization of the conflict. A Syrian-led political process leading to a transition can be achieved only through broad national dialogue that meets the legitimate aspirations of all sections of Syrian society and respect for Syrian independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty as expressed by the Geneva Joint Communiqué and appropriate UNSC resolutions.”

The BRICS positions on Iran and Syria cannot, however, be viewed solely within the parameters of the summit’s declaration. For starters, the statement is nothing new – the BRICS have been advocating these points in some form or another since they issued their first foreign policy communiqué in November 2011.

To understand the depth and breadth of commitment behind these Mideast stances, one needs to look beyond the sanitized, diplomat-speak of the summit environment. India, Brazil and South Africa, for instance, don’t offer up much commentary on Syria and Iran – they leave that to their UNSC permanent-member colleagues in Russia and China, who are the BRICS’ front-men on these issues.
Earlier in March, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Moscow on his first foreign trip as head of state, and told audiences there: “We must respect the right of each country in the world to independently choose its path of development and oppose interference in the internal affairs of other countries.”
A clear warning against aggressive western interventionism, Xi’s visit with Russia’s Vladimir Putin emphasized the importance of their “strategic partnership” in geopolitical affairs.

On Syria, in particular, Russia has taken the BRICS lead with the blessing of its fellow members – including China – so Moscow’s view of the situation is a critical one to analyze.

The Russians have recently released a concept paper on the importance of their participation in the BRICS – a view that is likely to reflect similar priorities at the highest levels of fellow member states.

BRICS drawing red lines

Putin and Xi say the one way to end the Syrian crisis is through dialogue [Xinhua]
Putin and Xi say the one way to end the Syrian
crisis is through dialogue [Xinhua]

For all the BRICS, financial and economic considerations are the driving momentum behind the formalization of this strategic coalition. There is, say the Russians, “a common desire of BRICS partners to reform the obsolete international financial and economic architecture which does not take into account the increased economic power of emerging market economies and developing countries.”

But for fundamental economic shifts to take place, a simultaneous rebalancing of political power worldwide must also occur.

Moscow believes that the BRICS “can potentially become a key element of a new system of global governance primarily in the financial and economic areas. At the same time, the Russian Federation stands in favor of positioning BRICS in the world system as a new model of global relations, overarching the old dividing lines between East and West, and North and South.”

It’s a bold new world, but there’s real value in some of the old ways. For one, the BRICS are big proponents of the Rule of Law in global affairs, concepts the West often tosses around, but rarely adheres to in pursuit of its own strategic interests, i.e. interventionism, regime-change, militarization of conflict.

For the Russians, an absolute BRICS priority is “building on the commitment by the participating states to the rule of law in international relations, to progressively expand the foreign policy cooperation with BRICS partners in the interests of peace and security with due respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of other states and non-interference in their internal affairs.”
The BRICS are backing the UN model to help achieve these basic principles. For them, the vehicle is not what is broken – the problem lies with its drivers. And in particular, the notion that regime change, sanctions and military intervention are acceptable tools in international affairs.

The BRICS, according to Moscow, can “enhance in every possible way interaction within the UN as well as to preserve and strengthen the UN Security Council’s role as a body bearing the primary responsibility for maintaining international peace and security; to prevent the use of the UN, first of all the Security Council, to cover up the course towards removing undesirable regimes and imposing unilateral solutions to conflict situations, including those based on the use of force.”

As an aside, it’s hardly a coincidence that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad sent a widely-reported letter to the BRICS during the Summit. Here, after all, was the head of state of a sovereign nation requesting the help of the newly-ascendant BRICS in protecting the territorial integrity of Syria by rebuffing ”blatant foreign interference” in contradiction of the ”UN Charter.”

That letter hit all the BRICS soft spots: Rule of Law in international relations, preservation of global peace and security, peaceful resolution of conflict, de-militarization … and recognition of the importance of the BRICS in the new world order.

Assad’s letter came one day after the Arab League gave Syria’s seat away to an external-based opposition coalition backed by Syrian foes – a move the Russians called “unlawful and invalid” and a hindrance to the peaceful resolution of the conflict.

It may be that BRICS intended to set an example here. Receiving this letter at the summit clearly bestows legitimacy on Assad and his claims – and it is hard to imagine that this was not an event coordinated in advance.

Moscow’s positions on the Syria issue cannot be seen out of the context of these shared BRICS principles. The Russians may have more at stake in what is going on in Syria – as others do in Iran – but these are consistent red lines in what the BRICS hope to achieve globally.

And they are willing to bet on it too. Part of the wager is that faltering western economies are so far gone on their current trajectories, that only “time” is required for these global shifts to materialize.
In any regard, shortly after the Summit concluded Russia vowed to prevent any measure in the UN Security Council to give Syria’s seat to the opposition.

The potential for chaos looms large though as a new political order emerges, and as a collective the BRICS will not be shy about pushing their agendas hard – a task made easier by the considerable clout they now share.

On his flight back from Durban to Moscow last Thursday, Putin ordered surprise large-scale military maneuvers in the Black Sea, which borders Syrian-foe Turkey – a move most observers took as a warning for foreign interventionists in Syria.

It is unlikely that BRICS nations would go to such lengths to draw red lines and not defend those positions. How this would transpire in the cases of Syria or Iran is uncertain – it is unlikely we are going to see a BRICS army fighting battles anytime soon. On the other hand, these strategic relationships are likely to give way to coordinated military positions and some special forces planning for exactly these kinds of scenarios.

This is not hard to fathom. BRIC was just an acronym created by Goldman Sachs to describe some fast-growing emerging economies a few years ago. Today, they are engaged in bilateral military exercises, funding banks, building institutions, and remapping global priorities for the 21st century.

Source: The Brics Post

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Russia sends humanitarian aid for Syria refugees, the USA sends guns for terrorists

April 3, 2013

The Russian Emergencies Ministry has announced that it will send humanitarian aid to the Syrian refugees in Lebanon. The spokeswoman of the Russian Emergencies Ministry, Irina Rossius, said this today to the news agency of Itar-Tass.

According to the information by the spokeswoman of the Russian Emergencies Ministry, Irina Rossius, an Il-76 plane will soon leave the airfield in Ramenskoye, which is located near the Russian capital Moscow.

It is planned that the Il-76 plane will leave the airfield in Ramenskoye tomorrow with a 26.7 tonne humanitarian consignment for the Syrian refugees in Lebanon.

Of course, the Russian plane will arrive in the capital of Lebanon, Beirut, and the loading of the humanitarian aid for the Syrian refugees in Lebanon will start today already.

Thus, Russia tries to help the many Syrian refugees in Lebanon and it is a good turn by Russia to send humanitarian aid to these people who sure need it, because their situation in the refugee camps is not the best and there were already horrible information about the situation of the Syrian refugees in the camps in Turkey and Jordan.

There were already stories about human trafficking, prostitution, kidnapping and young Syrian girls who were forced into marriages for money – and some not only once.

Not to mention the organ trade and a rotten Egyptian matchmaking agency who has offered Syrian girls and women for less money to customers, probably old Egyptian men, in a flyer. This Egyptian matchmaking agency has also offered virgins if the customer wants these kind of girls.

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April 3, 2013

Posted on April 1, 2013 by
Monday April 1, 2013, no125
Weekly information and analysis bulletin specialized in Arab Middle Eastern affairs prepared by
Editor in chief Wassim Raad
New Orient Center for Strategic policies

US meddling in Lebanon

By Ghaleb Kandil

The resignation of Prime Minister Najib Mikati is mainly due to the positions of the United States and the West vis-à-vis the Lebanese internal balance and its relationship with the new electoral law. This is a response to 8-March and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), which torpedoed the 1960 Act by preventing the formation of the Supervisory Commission elections.

The United States ambassador, Maura Connelly, gave the kickoff of escalation three weeks ago, insisting on the need to hold elections as scheduled, regardless of the electoral law.

Washington and the West are aware that any law other than that 1960 on will be subject to the determination of the Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai and General Michel Aoun to put an end to the injustice suffered by Christians in electoral matters since the Taif agreement. The U.S. and Western policy makers are convinced that the proportional electoral system and the Orthodox project (each community elects its own members) would put an end to the hegemony of their allies: a third of the seats would go to Sunni opponents of the Hariri clan; Christian representation would essentially goes to FPM. And if the blocks of the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb will increase, it will be at the expense of Christians elected on the lists of Saad Hariri and Walid Jumblatt.

The decline of the Western presence in Parliament will result in an automatic decline of its influence in the choice of the future President of the Republic, who is elected by the Chamber of Deputies.
All these issues are entangled with the determination of General Michel Aoun to reject all extension of the Parliament mandate, which expires in June, the President of the Republic mandate, which ends in May 2014.

Consultations for the selection of a new Prime Minister and for the formation of the next government are related to these political issues. Thus, despite discreet contacts made between the different political forces to try to reach acceptable scenario, the situation remains unclear. Political circles say that the Lebanese have to get used to the idea of ​​a long period of current affairs government, as it is difficult for the various actors to reach agreement on a new electoral law. And if the American auxiliaries in Lebanon try to attempt a move on the ground, it will result in a new balance that will certainly not be in their favor.

U.S. limits and divides opposition

The latest developments have proved that the U.S. plan which is to mobilize and send terrorists in Syria and weapons to rebel groups has reached its peak. The decision of the Arab League arming terrorists has retroactive effect, which seeks to justify actions already undertaken. It is no longer a secret that 3500 tons of weapons, transported aboard 130 aircrafts were sent to Syria in the last three months. And despite all forms of support, Syrian opposition is undermined by divergences and traversed by outside influence. France-Press Agency sheds light on this aspect:

Divisions within the Syrian opposition have brought to light the extent of a regional struggle led to blows money, media propaganda and weapons between the Qatar-Turkey axis and Saudi Arabia, close to American politics. “Our people refuse any supervision. Regional and international disputes have complicated the situation”, said the president of the opposition coalition, Moaz Ahmed Al-Khatib, in a speech to the Arab summit in Doha.

Simultaneously, some 70 opposition figures denounced in a message to the Arab summit a policy of “exclusion” followed by the Coalition, referring to the Muslim Brotherhood, and a “scandalous Arab and regional hegemony ” on opposition, referring to Qatar.
“There is a struggle between two main axis that do not represent the entire opposition but are essential for material aid and military aids. Qatar/Turkey axis supports the Muslim Brotherhood and the Saudi axis in harmony with the United States”, said Ziad Majed, a political science professor at the American University of Paris. “This has an impact on the internal composition of the political opposition and the affiliation of various military groups”, he added.

At the meeting of the Coalition in Istanbul, the participants expressed their divisions between supporters and opponents of an “interim government” to manage the “liberated zones”.

Some critics have denounced Ghassan Hitto, elected head of the government, as “Qatar’s candidate,” and others have suspended their group membership.

For Mr. Majed, “Saudi-American axis preferred to postpone the formation of the interim government and the axis Qatar/Turkey wanted to form it quickly and would have pushed to choose Hitto.” 

The rivalry between the rich oil monarchies of the Gulf and neighboring Turkey, seeking a regional power, is also reflected in the military.

After the meeting in Istanbul, Riyadh has hinted that it was “unhappy with the choice of Hitto, leading the Free Syrian Army (SLA) to reject this choice”, told AFP an opponent who requested the anonymity.

Daraya rebel fighters in the province of Damascus tell AFP that because the lack of arms and ammunition, they were on the verge of losing the city, besieged by the regime for more than three months. But, says one of them, “when Mr. Khatib made his offer of dialogue with the regime, weapons flowed quickly. This means that the weapons were stored at the border”.

According to an Arab specialist, weapons sent by Qatar are arriving to groups close to the Muslim Brotherhood via Turkey.

However, he adds, the Saudis prefer to fund and arm the military councils led by army dissidents “for fear of the increasing role of radical Islamists”, an approach supported by the United States. Saudi deliveries now arrive by the Jordanian border.
As for Salafi, including Al-Nosra Front they are funded based NGOs including Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, according to the specialist on Syria, who does not want to be named.

Regional rivalry is also played in the media, especially television Al-Jazeera in Qatar and Al-Arabiya, a Saudi-owned chain, competing to provide a forum for various opposition groups (AFP).


Michel Sleiman, Lebanese president
«We agreed with Patriarch Rai that elections should be held as scheduled at any price. The duty of government is to organize elections, to ensure peace and security in Lebanon and reduce the impact of the Syrian crisis on the country. Most Lebanese do not want the 1960 Electoral Act, but all the Lebanese want the elections to take place on time. Not organizing elections is a great sin and come to a political vacuum is a mortal sin. I will not sign the extension of Parliament mandate. Political parties are responsible for the current situation. They must agree on a new electoral law as soon as possible.»

Bashar al-Assad, Syrian president
«I called Brics leaders to work together to stop immediately the violence in Syria to ensure the success of the political solution. This requires a clear international commitment to dry up the sources of terrorism, to stop its funding and its equipment. You who seek to bring peace, security and justice in today’s troubled world, put all your efforts to stop the suffering of the Syrian people, caused by unfair economic sanctions, contrary to international law, and which affect directly the lives and daily needs of our citizens. I express the desire of the Syrian people to work with Brics countries as a force just trying to bring peace, security and cooperation between countries, away from the hegemony and injustice imposed on our peoples and our nations for decades.»

Michel Aoun, leader of the Free Patriotic Movement

«The Electoral Orthodox project is the only legitimate one. This is our only chance to ensure a fair and balanced representation of the Christian community. The Taif Agreement provides a balanced representation of all communities. Lebanon has already gone through a similar situation. We want a new electoral law before the formation of a new government, it is our priority. Mikati did his best and he was very cooperative. I would participate in a meeting of the dialogue if the discussion focuses on the electoral law. »

Samir Geagea, Leader of the Lebanese Forces
«One government can save Lebanon, a government formed from Mars-14 personalities and centrists. Thus, we could adopt a new electoral law in Parliament. Hezbollah has tried his luck in trying to govern, and then we were opponents. He should do the same today. The proposal to form a national unity government is not possible.»

Sergei Lavrov, Russian minister of Foreign Affairs
«We received with deep regret the outcome of the Arab League summit in the capital of Qatar. Decisions adopted at Doha mean that the League has waived the peaceful solution. Recognizing the Syrian opposition coalition as the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people destroyed all settlement efforts, including Arab League. The mediator of the UN and the League for Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, will no longer pursue its mission. There will be no possible negotiation between the government and the opposition in Syria, I really do not see how Mr. Brahimi will be able to fulfill its mandate as a mediator.»

François Hollande, French president
«Paris will not send any weapons to the Syrian opposition fighters until it has a tangible proof that these weapons will not fall in the hands of any terrorist group.»

Ø A British report indicates that hundreds of Muslims, with British, French and other countries of the European Union passports, are participating in hostilities in Syria in the ranks of radical groups, and may return to Europe. According to the document, the radical extremists are able to carry out terrorist attacks and acts of sabotage. “It would be foolish to believe that radical Islamists decide one day that Europeans are their friends, says Sergei Demidenko, a Russian political analyst. The West will always be their potential target”. Sources give different figures – from 3-10000 mercenaries. All agree that they are part of al-Nosra Front linked to Al-Qaeda.

Ø A delegation of national and Islamic parties, led by the head of international relations at Hezbollah, Ammar Moussawi, visited China at the invitation of the Chinese Association for International Understanding. The members of the delegation met with officials of the Chinese Communist Party and parliamentary personalities.

Ø Turkey has expelled hundreds of Syrians refugees after clashes with military police, said a Turkish official. “These people were involved in violence. They were seen by surveillance cameras in the camp”, the official said. “From 600 to 700 people were expelled. Security forces continue to review video footage and if they discover other people, they will be deported”, he added.

Press review

As Safir (Lebanese daily, close to the majority, March 29, 2013)

Dialogue between the President of the Chamber, Nabih Berry, and the head of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) Michel Aoun is blocked due to differences relating to the convening of a Parliament plenary to vote the electoral law and the extension of the mandate of the security institutions. Hezbollah has not lost hope. In a final attempt, the political assistant of the secretary general of Hezbollah, Hajj Hussein Khalil, met with president Nabih Berry in the presence of Minister Ali Hassan Khalil. There were reports of a possible intervention of Marada leader, MP Sleiman Franjieh, to mediate between the two ” forced allies.”

The last hours of consultations show that the former prime minister, Saad Hariri, has not yet decided over the issue of his candidacy to succeed Najib Mikati, although Saudi Arabia is not enthusiastic about the idea, while Qatar, Turkey and Britain, as well as other capitals, would support the continuation of the outgoing Prime Minister. The position of these countries aroused reserves of the Future Movement who believes that if we had a process of elimination, it should start with the name of Mikati which should be deleted of the list of potential prime ministers, because the “man is undesirable.”

At this point, MP Walid Jumblatt is embarrassed after he had provided guarantees to President Nabih Berry and Hezbollah. The leader of the Progressive Socialist Party now arises the following questions: How will I do if Saad Hariri is a candidate? Can I deceive him again? What price should I pay? What will be my attitude if he proposes another candidate? How do I act with Najib Mikati to whom I promised to stay with him? Could I disappoint Hezbollah and Nabih Berry in consultations for the choice of prime minister?

An Nahar (Lebanese Daily, close to march-14 coalition)

Sabine Oueiss (March 25, 2013)

The Syrian crisis will worsen and pressure against Hezbollah will intensify. Which would have deprived the Lebanese government of the international recognition, under the pretext that the distinction is no more possible between its president and the Hezbollah. As well as the assumption that the government is guaranteeing the stability of Lebanon lapses, especially that Lebanon is in the eye of the Syrian storm and warnings about the need to keep it away from this crisis are now ineffective. At the same time, the countdown began for constitutional deadlines.

Najib Mikati’s resignation is a way out for all, including Hezbollah. A current affairs government, where the minister is the only master on board of his ministry, is preferable to an cabinet that has become a burden for the party, especially since it lost productivity and became the hostage of external commitments of the Prime Minister.

Government sources give a reading at the post-resignation. They said the resignation came at the right time after the government had reached the limit of what he could do and that the need for change has become more urgent. The slogans of yesterday are no longer valid.

These sources draw the following scenario: In a first step, Najib Mikati is reappointed as prime minister after parliamentary consultations. Then the Speaker Nabih Berry convene a parliamentary session to discuss the electoral law. In the proposed agenda are the Orthodox project and other drafts. Consultations for the formation of the government will take time and go through shocks.

Al Akhbar (Lebanese Daily close to the Resistance, March 29, 2013)

Jamal al-Ghorabi

To get to the Sayyida Zainab shrine from central Damascus, one must take the Airport Road. Until recently, this route was considered too dangerous because of flying rebel roadblocks and falling mortar shells. Yet following an army offensive into the capital’s suburbs, access has become easier.
Once you pass the army checkpoints and fortified military positions, you are almost to the gold-domed shrine that is the burial place of Zainab Bint-Ali, granddaughter of the Prophet Mohammad and a revered figure for Shia Muslims.

At the entrance to the nearby market is a checkpoint manned by members of the local Popular Committees. Once inside, the alleys are lined with signs in Farsi. Many of the shops cater to the busloads of Iranian pilgrims who used to make pilgrimages to this area on the southern outskirts of Damascus.

In the market, business does not seem booming. Trade has dwindled since pilgrims have become targets of kidnappers. Unsold goods are piled up in the stores. Most shops display portraits of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah alongside Bashar al-Assad. Shia religious slogans are plastered on all surfaces. Banners call for the shrine to be defended until martyrdom.
To enter the actual shrine, you must first undergo a search conducted by the Abul-Fadl al-Abbas Brigade, the main protectors of the site. Young men, their badges identifying them as members, smile before searching visitors, and apologize to them afterwards, explaining that it is due to the security situation.

Inside, calm prevails. Three young boys converse in a language that turns out to be Baluchi. They have come from Pakistan with their parents to visit the shrine, explained their father Hassan. His niqab-covered wife refused to speak, but when asked why they chose to make the journey at this time, Hassan explained that he made a vow and is fulfilling it.

Elsewhere, a man in his sixties from Bint Jbeil, Lebanon clasped the silver lattice-work that encloses Zainab’s tomb. He kissed it and recited religious entreaties for the well-being of his family, he said, and for Syria to overcome its crisis.

Barely half a kilometer to the west of the shrine lies the small village of Jiera, where rebel groups operate. They sometimes trade fire with members of the Abul-Fadl al-Abbas Brigade, mostly at night. Recently the gunmen have become less active thanks to the brigade, and the area has become relatively safer, but not entirely.

When the muezzin belts out the call to prayer, the shrine is transformed into a beehive. It is as though the entire neighborhood has congregated. At nightfall, the shrine is locked, security is heightened, and the adjoining streets become a virtual military zone. Brigade members are deployed in substantial numbers since clashes occasionally break out.

One member explained that gunmen take advantage of the densely built-up neighborhoods to the west of the shrine to stage hit-and-run attacks and fire mortars. They are invariably beaten back, he said, and have failed to reach the shrine itself, although they managed to damage an outer wall with a mortar shell.

Al Akhbar (March 29, 2013)

Hassan Illeik

With the resignation of Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has become Lebanon’s political kingmaker once again. He reveals to Al-Akhbar his conditions for the next government.

Walid Jumblatt rejects the idea that he has regained his role as a kingmaker, a figure who is able to both shape the next government and determine which election law will be adopted for the parliamentary elections. “I cannot accept any side being left out,” he says, suggesting that he does not plan to back a particular bloc as he did in 2011 with the previous government. “This is a very dangerous period.”

He’s pleased that Hezbollah is not pressuring him this time around, adding that the situation has changed since then, particularly when it comes to Syria. He maintains that Lebanon’s policy of dissociation from the crisis next door has collapsed, blaming Hezbollah, Lebanese Sunni armed groups, and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) of violating it.

So what do you think should be done? “The return to dialogue,” he answers. “We really should stay away from the kind of criticisms that the Future Movement directed against the National Dialogue Roundtable. We’ve made a lot of progress on how to benefit from Hezbollah’s arms in confronting the Israeli enemy, so let’s use it to get them out of Syria.”

He refuses to name his candidate to head up the next government, insisting that the selection be made collectively by the main political forces. If it is going to be a government of technocrats, as some are proposing, then he would name businessman and head of the Arab Chamber of Commerce Adnan Kassar.

Jumblatt denies reports that he had already proposed the return of Mikati to head up a national unity government. He reaches for a piece of paper on which he wrote his main conditions: a return to disassociation from the Syrian crisis, making sure Lebanon’s sources of wealth are not “controlled by destructive political forces,” and administrative reform.

His second condition stands out most. Jumblatt doesn’t want Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement to control the lucrative energy and telecom ministries as they have in previous governments, thus firing the first salvo in the ministerial selection process.

He insists that Mikati’s resignation had nothing to do with external pressures as many had suggested – “he was barred from appointing a first-category civil servant,” he says, referring to the refusal of the previous cabinet to endorse Mikati’s proposal to extend the term of the commander of the Internal Security Forces (ISF), Ashraf Rifi.

He refuses any quid pro quo between extending for Rifi and the new election law, particularly the Orthodox Gathering proposal which he strongly opposes, denouncing the Christian political leaders who are supporting it.

Jumblatt says categorically that his MPs will not participate in any parliamentary session that will consider the Orthodox law. He is only willing to consider what is being called a “mixed law” that combines both proportional and majority representation.

Al Akhbar (March 28, 2013)

Nicolas Nassif
The three Lebanese governments formed during President Michel Suleiman’s five-year term have all been forced into existence due to external pressures.

The 2008 Fouad Siniora government was the result of the Doha Agreement. The 2009 Saad Hariri government saw the light of day due to a Saudi-Syrian reconciliation. The 2011 Najib Mikati government emerged after the collapse of this regional understanding.

After Mikati’s recent resignation, however, it is unclear what circumstances will force the formation of a new government, particularly given the fact that the constitution does not impose time limits on either the president to name a new prime minister, or the prime minister to form a government.
It seems clear that most of the political parties, which are divided between March 8 and 14, are not in any rush to form a new cabinet for a variety of reasons.

First, the president prefers to wait until the contending political forces come to some sort of agreement on the shape and role of the new government before initiating consultations to name a prime minister.

It doesn’t matter that there is a majority that supports a particular candidate – without the agreement of both March 8 and 14, the new prime minister will hit a wall and be forced to step down.
Since the Taif Agreement, presidents have generally moved rather quickly to name a prime minister as soon as a government collapsed. Suleiman has decided to break this practice this time around, particularly as the political parties have come to play a role in the formation of recent governments that is equal to the designated prime minister.

Second, given that the preparations for parliamentary elections are due to begin on April 20 (two months before its term expires), no prime minister alone is capable of dealing with the contradictory demands that will be placed on any new government. The likely result will be an extension for parliament before the formation of a new government.

Third, both March 8 and 14 will not rush the formation of a government before determining what role it is meant to play internally and externally, in addition to what their position will be within it.
It is telling that neither side has put forward any names despite the fact that it has become customary since the time of Syrian rule to designate a prime minister almost immediately before or after the government resigns.

Even if a cabinet is formed, it cannot last long as it will expire with the onset of the March 2014 presidential elections, thus making any new government a transitional one at best.
Fourth, both sides are now dealing with Mikati’s resignation cooly after some initial negative reactions from March 8 and celebration on the part of March 14.

His resignation does not appear to have changed the balance of power between the majority and minority in parliament. Rather, it appears that there will be two large minority blocs – March 8 and 14 – with a much smaller group of MPs headed by Mikati, and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt standing in the middle.

Al Akhbar (March 27, 2013)

Ibrahim al-Amine

Suddenly, the Arabs became men. They awoke to the fact that they possess military capabilities ready for use. But where? In an Arab land. And against whom? An Arab people. Their rationale is that there are killings and death in Syria. They decided that the culprit is a segment of the Syrian population, and it must be fought with every means at their disposal.

Suddenly, the Arabs became men. But instead of feeling disgraced by the constant sight of death in Palestine, they decided to kick up as much dust as possible in the name of Palestinian reconciliation. They resolved to hold summits to ensure Palestinian reconciliation. They hope the dust-cloud will be thick enough to conceal their big crime in Syria. Suddenly, the Arabs have all been exposed. There are no major countries left in the Arab world.

In Egypt, the government is busy ingratiating itself with the whole world in search of loans to exchange for what is left of the public sector. Algeria faces daily threats of it being added to the list of Arab countries in urgent need of an Arab Spring.

There is no need to even mention Tunisia, Libya, or Yemen. They have become centers for the production of terrorist groups to fight beyond their borders, while takfiris terrorize the folks back home.

In Lebanon, all contracted services are being delivered on demand. The government resigns, and courts chaos and civil war, to keep the plunderers of Arab wealth happy.
In Jordan, meanwhile, they are told they have two choices: civil war, or signing up for the global alliance against the Syrian regime.

As for Palestine, it can continue to be ignored, as there’s no tragedy there that merits action.

This has left the institution of the Arab League under the control of the madmen of the Gulf, and transformed Qatar, from one moment to the next, into a megalomaniac that thinks it is the leader of the Arab nation.

Thus, without shame, Qatar wants to persuade the world that the cause of Syria is top priority. They want to persuade us that they are qualified to champion a people, while they shackle their own peoples, and their wretched ruling families indulge in the theft of an entire nation’s resources.

America’s Gulf clients found that Palestine warrants no more than a few million dollars and some reconciliation efforts. They have never heard of a popular uprising going on in Bahrain for the past two years. And they certainly face no protests at home for a fair distribution of wealth. All that really troubles them is Syria.

Once again, these people seem confident that they are all-powerful. They are equally confident that American and Western armies will forever protect them..

The one thing that preoccupies them is an obsession that has become very personal. What they worry about the most is being caught vulnerable as they stand transfixed before their TV screens, waiting for just one item of news: the announcement that Bashar al-Assad has fallen.

Al Akhbar (March 28, 2013)

Yehia Dbouk

An Israeli decision to transfer its military brigades from the Syrian border to the Lebanese suggests that Israel is preparing for a new war in the north.

Israeli military sources told Haaretz that war exercises are currently focused on its northern front. With a Syrian army weakened, claimed Haaretz, the Lebanese border preparations are informed by a “redefinition of the real threat represented currently in Hezbollah.”

The newspaper reported that Yair Golan, head of the Israeli Northern Command, has stressed the need to work on dismantling the aura that has developed around Hezbollah in order to highlight the possibility of its defeat in the next war.

Golan emphasized that Hezbollah is creating a strategic balance with Israel and “part of it is trying to get surface-to-sea missiles to eliminate our naval superiority, surface-to-air missiles to eliminate our aerial supremacy, and perhaps even trying to acquire chemical weapons to eliminate Israel’s supreme strategic capabilities.”

Golan pointed out that “the pressure faced by Hezbollah as a result of Syria’s disintegration is quite evident and it is expressed not only through its support for Assad, but also through developments in Lebanon.”

Golan said, “It is believed that instability in this country will further take root, but that Hezbollah will succeed in facing it with Iran’s help. I have a feeling that Hezbollah will overcome this challenge, but its control over Lebanon will be more obvious than before.”

This, according to Golan, means that “we will have a Hezbollah state, but it will be behind the Alawite state expected to emerge in Syria. In other words, Iran is here.”

AL Joumhouria (Lebanese daily, close to March 14 Coalition) (March 27, 2013)

Military sources reported that the plan of the army to control the situation on the ground in Tripoli is still in force, but a possible explosion is not excluded. These sources mention a well studied plan by the militia, including Salafists and supporters of the Free Syrian Army to transform the city into a center for operation and logistics.

The same sources added that Al-Qaeda, in cooperation with the Salafists in Tripoli, want a sanctuary. The organization works to route militants from Syria, Mali, Iraq, Sudan and Jordan towards Lebanon. To ensure the success of his plan, the Emir of Al-Qaeda in Lebanon, Houssam Sabbagh, strives to undergo brainwashing to Sunni sheikhs in the city, and pushes them to proclaim an Islamic emirate in Tripoli. This option had been already considered by the Group of Mohammad Zein al-Abidine Ben Nayef Ben Srour, who arrived in Lebanon on the eve of Nahr al-Bared war, in 2007.

Military sources add: “The Srour affiliated groups are present today in the streets of Tripoli. They include Libyans, Algerians, Syrians, Kuwaitis and Palestinians. They coordinate their action directly with Houssam Sabbagh and Kuwaiti Yaacoub Choummari. Their goal is to create a broad Salafi Religious Council, which attract other Salafist groups to unify the gun and put the Salafist plan to proclaim an Islamic emirate in North Lebanon. In addition to the religious council, these groups want to form a council of war.”

The Lebanese security services are aware of these plans and know that these ideas are deeply rooted in the minds of Salafists and their supporters.

Yediot Aharonot (Israeli Daily, March 29, 2013)

According to former Mossad chief Shabtai Shavit (1989-1996), Qatar played a “historic role in Israel’s favor larger than Great Britain.” Referring to the role of Doha in the implementation of policies of the United States and Israel in the Middle East, Shavit added that the services rendered by the Qatar to Tel Aviv are “more decisive than the services rendered to Israel for many years in other countries. “

According to former Mossad chief, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, the Emir of Qatar, had always sided with the U.S. and “Israel” in regional issues. “The foreign policy of Qatar as Arab political lever in Tel Aviv and Washington,” said Shavit.

Haaretz (Israeli Daily, March 30, 2013)

Home Front Command, Maj. Gen. Eyal Eisenberg expected for future conflict between Israel and Hezbollah that the latter will rain down 10 more times rockets than those dropped on the central of Israel during July war. “Hezbollah is able today to rain down on the central of Israel 10 more times rockets than those dropped in 2006. It will be massive rockets and missile fire”, Eisenberg said. “Before 2006, Hezbollah was able to launch 500 rockets but this did not happen because Israel destroyed the rockets during the war first nights”, he pointed out.

“Now Hezbollah has around 5 thousand rockets, of 300kgs to 880kgs. First days will be very difficult and I am preparing myself for a scenario when the interior front will be rained down by more than one thousand rockets every day”, he added.

However, Eisenberg considered that Israel is not looking for such military confrontation. “This war is useless also for the second party and Israel’s know how to harm widely its enemy, far much more than the latter could do thanks to our Air weapons”, he stated.

Ria Novosti (Russian press Agency, March 30, 2013)

The Russian Foreign Ministry on Saturday posted a statement on its website slamming the US State Department’s stated intent to continue funding non-governmental organizations in Russia as “interfering.”

“We view the declaration made by the official representative of the State Department, Victoria Nuland, that the United States will continue financing individual NGOs within Russia via intermediaries in third countries, bypassing Russian law, as open interference in our internal affairs” the statements reads.

This statement responds to comments Nuland made during Thursday’s State Department presse briefing in which she highlighted US concern that the latest wave of spot-checks on NGOs in Russia was “some kind of witch hunt.” The Russian Foreign Ministry statement singles out the use of that term in particular as “nothing other than cynical and provocative.”

On Thursday, Nuland also said “we are providing funding through platforms outside of Russia for those organizations that continue to want to work with us, understanding that they have to report that work now to their own government.”

Russia’s Foreign Ministry criticized Nuland as inciting Russian NGOs and public bodies to violate Russian regulations.

On Thursday, President Vladimir Putin warned the Kremlin’s human rights ombudsman Vladimir Lukin that the raids should be monitored to ensure there were no “excesses” by the officials carrying out these spot checks.

Earlier this week, Russian NGO Agora, which has provided legal support to numerous political activists and which itself was also subject to a spot check, said that this latest wave of inspections has affected over 80 organizations across Russia.

Reuters (British press agency, March 30, 2013)

Saudi Arabia may try to end anonymity for Twitter users in the country by limiting access to the site to people who register their identification documents, the Arab News daily reported on Saturday.
Last week, local media reported the government had asked telecom companies to look at ways they could monitor, or block, free internet phone services such as Skype.

Twitter is highly popular with Saudis and has stirred broad debate on subjects ranging from religion to politics in a country where such public discussion had been considered at best unseemly and sometimes illegal.

Early this month, the security spokesman for Saudi Arabia’s Interior Ministry described social networking, particularly Twitter, as a tool used by militants to stir social unrest.
The country’s Grand Mufti, Saudi Arabia’s top cleric, last week described users of the microblogging site as “clowns” wasting time with frivolous and even harmful discussions, local newspapers reported.

“A source at (the regulator) described the move as a natural result of the successful implementation of (its) decision to add a user’s identification numbers while topping up mobile phone credit,” Arab News reported.

That would not necessarily make a user’s identity visible to other users of the site, but it would mean the Saudi government could monitor the tweets of individual Saudis.

The English-language news outlet did not explain how the authorities might be able to restrict ability to post on Twitter. The newspaper belongs to a publishing group owned by the ruling family and run by a son of Crown Prince Salman.

Internet service providers are legally obliged to block websites showing content deemed pornographic.

One of the big investors in Twitter is Saudi Arabian billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, a nephew of King Abdullah who also holds significant stakes in Citi Group, News Corp and Apple through his Kingdom Holding Company.

The country’s telecom regulator, Communications and Information Technology Commission (CITC) did not immediately responded to requests for comment on the report. Last week it did not comment on the report it was seeking to restrict Skype use.

A spokeswoman for Kingdom Holding said Prince Alwaleed was not available to comment.
“There are people who misuse the social networking and try to send false information and false evaluation of the situation in the kingdom and the way the policemen in the kingdom are dealing with these situations,” said Major General Mansour Turki, the security spokesman, at a news conference on March 8.

In a separate interview with Reuters this month, Turki argued that a small number of supporters of al-Qaeda and activists from Saudi Arabia’s Shia minority used social media to stir wider sympathy for their goals and social unrest.

Two weeks ago one of Saudi Arabia’s most prominent clerics, Salman al-Awdah, who has 2.4 million followers on the site, used Twitter to attack the government’s security policy as too harsh and call for better services. He warned it might otherwise face “the spark of violence.” Two leading Saudi human rights activists were sentenced to long prison terms this month for a variety of offenses including “internet crimes” because they had used Twitter and other sites to attack the government.
Some top princes in the monarchy now use Twitter themselves and Crown Prince Salman, King Abdullah’s designated heir and also defense minister, recently opened an official account

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian  
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It’s the oil, stupid

April 2, 2013
Syria’s oil wealth: The  Global and Regional Conflict on Oil and Gas  

Discovery of 14 oil basins in Syrian territorial waters, .. Information revealed by Dr. Imad Fawzi Shuaibi

دام برس – اياد الجاجة :
يكشف الدكتور عماد فوزي الشعيبي رئيس مركز الدراسات والمعطيات الإستراتيجية في دمشق عن اكتشاف 14 حوضاً نفطياً في المياه الإقليمية السورية، في ظل تعتيم على نتائج المسح الذي أجرته شركة نرويجية.
وضمن حلقة من برنامج “حوار الساعة” على قناة “الميادين” قال الشعيبي “إن مسحاً تأشيرياً لمنطقة الساحل السوري لما يقارب 5000 كيلو متر مربع قامت به شركة نرويجية تدعى “انسيس” توصل إلى اكتشاف 14 حقلاً نفطياً”.
الشعيبي كشف أن من بين الحقول الـ 14 “هناك أربعة حقول من المنطقة الممتدة من الحدود اللبنانية إلى منطقة بانياس تضم إنتاجاً نفطياً يعادل إنتاج دولة الكويت من النفط، ومجموعه يتخطى ما هو موجود في لبنان وقبرص وإسرائيل مجتمعين”.
واعتبر الشعيبي أن هذا المخزون النفطي هو “نقمة”، متابعاً “السؤال هو هل من المسموح أن تمتلك دولة واحدة كل هذا؟”.
كلام الشعيبي يطرح تساؤلات حول دور المخزون النفطي والغازي الموجود في سورية والغير مستثمر في الأزمة التي تشهدها البلاد، حيث تم اكتشاف آبار غاز في منطقة ريفي حمص ودمشق باحتياطيات كبيرة، بالإضافة إلى ما يحكى عن حرب انابيب الغاز وموقع سورية الاستراتيجي لمد هذه الخطوط.
سورية تتهم المجموعات المسلحة المعارضة بمهاجمة آبار النفط وسرقتها في سياق ميداني، أضرمت مجموعات مسلحة النار في ثلاثة آبار نفطية في منطقة دير الزور، حيث أعلن مصدر مسؤول في وزارة النفط السورية أن “ذلك يتسبب بخسارة يومية، تقدر بأكثر من أربعة آلاف برميل من النفط و52 ألف متر مكعب من الغاز” موضحاً أن “هذا التعدي يأتي بهدف سرقة النفط وبيعه”.
أما الإحراق بحسب المصادر السورية الرسمية فكان نتيجة فتح المسلحين بعض الآبار عشوائياً، ما أدى إلى نشوب خلاف بينهم على تقاسم النفط المسروق منها فقاموا بإشعال النيران فيها.
أضرار الإعتداء بحسب المصدر الرسمي يتعدى الخسائر الاقتصادية، فالبلد الذي يعيش أزمة دموية تجاوز عمرها العامين، قد يكون أمام آثار بيئية سلبية على الرغم من مسارعة شركة الفرات للنفط على معالجة الأمر، حيث قالت إنها نجحت منذ بداية الأزمة في إطفاء ستة من أصل تسعة آبار تم إحراقها.
المصدر : الميادين

full vedio



ألغاز اللّغز الذي لم يعد لُغزًا …د. حياة الحويك عطية

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لم يعد الغاز،كونه، جوهر الصراع القائم في سورية موضع نقاش، وذلك ضمن السياق الدولي الذي أعادنا منذ التسعينيات الى مقولة كيسنجر: انه النفط يا غبي،
مستبدلة النفط بالغاز. غير أن ما تتوقعه الأوساط الأوروبية حاليا من أزمة بدأت مراحلها الأولى بين تركيا واليونان حول مخزون الغاز المرشح للتأزيم في بحر ايجه و المتوسط، بعد الأزمة الأخرى بين تركيا وقبرص حول المشكلة نفسها.
سياقات تطرح سؤالا يصوغه المنطق الاستراتيجي الذي يحلو لهواة التضليل أن يسموه نظرية المؤامرة: هل كان من باب الحظ أن يقع الانهيار الاقتصادي في اليونان والآن في قبرص؟ وهل تكون الشركات المتعددة الجنسيات التي لن يتم استخراج الغاز خارج سيادتها ببعيدة أو بعاجزة عن تفعيل هذه الأزمات؟
وبالانتقال الى سورية، وهي ما يهمنا بالدرجة الأولى، فان الأمر يعيدني الى عبارة سمعتها من أحد المعارضين السوريين الوطنيين في باريس قبل عامين: لا تخافوا لن يدمروا سورية، لأن هدف التدمير هو مناقصات اعادة البناء ونحن لسنا ليبيا – الغاز، ولا عراق – النفط، كي يطمعوا بثرواتنا عبر الهيمنة واعادة البناء.
وها نحن اليوم نسمع عن مؤتمرات اعادة الاعمار الأول منها عقد في الامارات والثاني يهيأ له حاليا، لاعداد توزيع الكعكة قبل نضجها بفترة لا تزال طويلة. الشركات تفرك أكفها وتتهيأ كلها لاعادة الاعمار، إما مقابل الثروات الموجودة، وإما مقابل ديون تسدد لاحقا من دخل الغاز المقبل.
منذ البداية كان تمرير خط الغاز القطري عبر سورية الى المتوسط الى أوروبا لتحرير القارة العجوز من التبعية للغاز الروسي، هو المطلب الرئيسي لعدم تفجير بركان الدمار المسمى ربيعا.
ففي آخر زيارة قام بها الرئيس السوري الى فرنسا، استقبل ظاهريا بحفاوة كبيرة، وأعطي فرصة الحديث لمدة ساعة ونصف الساعة على شاشة التلفزيون الفرنسي، واستقبلت زوجته في لقاء ثقافي حول حوار الحضارات والثقافات نادرا ما يخصص لزوجة ضيف. غير أن اللقاء الأهم الذي كان قد رتبه ساركوزي من الباب الخلفي لقصر الاليزيه- كي يظل سريا عن الاعلام – هو لقاء يجمع الرئيسين وحمد بن جاسم لطرح مطلب تمرير انبوب الغاز القطري، وعندما رفض الأسد ذلك خرج الجميع متجهمين وقال الذين سربوا الخبر من الاليزيه بأن الحبل قد انقطع، وأن على سورية أن تتوقع بداية تفجير قريب.
وعندما كان جون كيري يتحدث مؤخرا عن محاولته اقناع الرئيس الاسد بتغيير مواقفه، لتليين الوضع والاقتراب من الحل، كان ذلك الاعلان يتعلق بعدة شروط منها تمرير أنبوب الغاز القطري. ” اضافة الى تمرير انبوب الماء التركي الى اسرائيل وتقليص الجيش وفك الارتباط بمحور المقاومة – ايران – روسيا”.
لم يقتنع الاسد وعاد الخطاب الى التشدد. وواقع هذه المطالب لا تعني فقط الآني المتعلق باسرائيل، قطر، اوروبا وتركيا، بل تعني أيضا الاحتمال المقبل مع وصول سورية الى مرحلة استخراج الغاز المخزون عند شواطئها. فهل كان من الممكن لتركيا واسرائيل وأوروبا أن تتحمل نهضة اقتصادية في سورية التي كانت تملك أكبر جيش عربي متبق ولا تزال عقيدته العسكرية العداء لاسرائيل، وتملك نهضة اقتصادية تنموية قائمة على الانتاج لا على الريعية وعلى الاستهلاك ، ولا تخضع بالمقابل لاية ديون فيما يشكل حالة عربية وربما عالمثالثية فريدة ؟
بالتوازي ، بل بالتقاطع، هل يمكن للشركات المتعددة الجنسيات التي يصفها هيربرت تشيلر بانها مروية بصلصة أميركية أن تترك الثروة الغازية المقبلة خارج هيمنتها؟ والأسوأ أن تذهب الى محور غازٍ لبناني – ايراني – روسي، لا يعيد التوازن السياسي الى الساحة الدولية فحسب، بل يعيد ايضا التوازن الاقتصادي وذاك هو الأخطر.
وأخيرا ، لا آخرا ماذا سيكون وضع اسرائيل وحلفائها العرب في هذه المعادلة كلها؟
تلك خلفيات معركة سورية . معركة الحرب العالمية الثالثة. التي لا نقول أبدا أن الادارة السورية لم تخطئ عندما لم تعالج مسبقا نزع فتيلها داخليا، او على الاقل تجفيف كم النفط الذي كان يغرق قشها اليابس، ورص الصف اكثر لمواجهتها .
سورية الان – العرب اليوم 

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian  
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The Russian sudden maneuvers ….. The Real Reason Putin Supports Assad

April 1, 2013

The Real Reason Putin Supports Assad

“…Why has Putin offered such steadfast support to Assad? On the surface, Moscow seems to profit from exporting arms to Syria, and it depends on the regime’s good will to maintain Russian access to a naval facility at the Mediterranean port of Tartus. But these are marginal and symbolic interests. Putin is really motivated to support the Assad regime by his fear of state collapse — a fear he confronted most directly during the secession of Russia’s North Caucasus republic of Chechnya, which he brutally suppressed in a bloody civil war and counterinsurgency operation fought between 1999 and 2009. (In Russia, the republics are semi-autonomous federal units comprising the historic territories of the country’s non-ethnic Russian groups.) In a series of interviews he gave in 2000 for an authorized biography, Putin declared that “the essence of the … situation in the North Caucasus and in Chechnya … is the continuation of the collapse of the USSR…. If we did not quickly do something to stop it, Russia as a state in its current form would cease to exist…. I was convinced that if we did not immediately stop the extremists [in Chechnya], then in no time at all we would be facing a second Yugoslavia across the entire territory of the Russian Federation — the Yugoslavization of Russia.” And we know how Putin feels about the demise of the Soviet Union; in 2005 he called it “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the [twentieth] century,” a comment that was meant to bemoan the collapse of the Soviet state rather than the demise of communism. …”

المناورات الروسية المفاجئة …..في الدلالات والمفاعيل؟


‏الإثنين‏، 01‏ نيسان‏، 2013

أوقات الشام

أمين حطيط
لم ينتظر الرئيس بوتين – العائد من قمة البريكس – لم ينتظر الوصول الى موسكو ليناقش مع قيادته العسكرية شأنا عسكرية هاما يتعلق بتحريك اساطيل و قوى عسكرية بين البحر الابيض المتوسط و البحر الاسود بل سارع و هو في الطائرة لتوجيه الامر لقيادة الجيش الروسي باجراء مناورة بحرية واسعة النطاق في البحر الاسود و تحريك الاسطول الروسي المتواجد في المتوسط ليلاقيها في الحركة العسكرية المنسقة التي تضع تركيا بين فكي كماشة البحرية الروسية من الشمال و الجنوب مع التذكير بالمعبر بينهما و الذي يخترق تركيا ايضا .

قد يرى البعض ان المناورات العسكرية هذه تاتي في سياق عمل الجيوش من حيث التدريب و رفع الجهوزية ، و هو رأي يؤخذ به فيما لو لم تكن البيئة العالمية على هذا القدر من الدقة و الحساسية نتيجة المواجهة القائمة على الساحة السورية ، و هو صراع قسم العالم الى قسمين متواجهين ، و من بقي خارجهما مدعيا الحياد او النأي بالنفس فانه و بقصد او من غير قصد يكون قد عزل نفسه اوهمشها لانه في المواجهات العالمية الكبرى لا يمكن لاحد ان يحمي حياده مهما كبر شأنه و يكون عليه ان ينتمي او يلتحق بفريق ما حتى يؤمن فرص الربح لنفسه ، و ان يمنع نفسه من ان تتحول الى ورقة تعديل الاوزان بين الاقوياء لاجراء القسمة بعد الحرب .

لقد تقررت المناورات العسكرية الروسية بشكل مفاجئ و في وضع رأى فيه البعض ان اميركا اضطرت امام صمود و ثبات الدولة السورية في معركتها الدفاعية رغم سنتين من العدوان المتعدد الاشكال و الاساليب ، اضطرت اميركا ان تلقي بسلاحها الثقيل في المعركة فجاء رئيسها كما بات واضحا الى المنطقة ليحشدها في معركة الحسم الفاصلة التي يعد لها خلال الاشهر الثلاثة القادمة ، و عمل اوباما على تسوية العلاقة و تطبيع الاوضاع مع و بين اسرائيل و تركيا و الاردن و اسقط في لبنان حكومة نجيب الميقاتي التي كان اتباع الغرب يسمونها “حكومة حزب الله ” ، و ضغط على العراق لتجنيده ضد سورية و قاد حرباً نفسية على المقاومة في لبنان مستعيدا ما يصفها به ، و دفع اسرائيل الى الانخراط المباشر في الازمة السورية و على خطوط ثلاثة ، تبدأ بتمكين الجماعات المسلحة من العمل على خط وقف اطلاق النار في الجولان و تقديم الدعم و المساندة الفاعلة لهم ، ثم فتح “الحدود المؤقتة” امام جرحى تلك العصابات للدخول الى مستشفيات العدو الاسرائيلي للاستشفاء في مبادرة تذكر بما كان يسمى ” الجدار الطيب ” في جنوب لبنان في العام 1976 الجدار الذي انقلب الى احتلال جنوبي الليطاني في العام 1978 و اقامة الحزام الامني لاسرائيل و تكليف الرائد الفار من الجيش اللبناني سعد الحداد بقيادة قوى اسميت “جيش لبنان الحر” لادارته بالاشراف الاسرائيلي ، و اخيرا تسخين الاجواء في جنوب لبنان للتهويل على حزب الله بان الحرب عليه باتت قريبة في عمل يقصد منه تثبيت الحزب و تجميد حركته لمنعه من تقديم اي نوع من المؤازرة للقوى التي تدافع عن سورية .

لقد رأى بوتين ان استعادة التوازن في المشهد الدولي يلزمه عمل ميداني خاصة بعد الفجور الذي ابداه الفريق الاخر بالدعوة الى تسليح المعارضة علانية و الانخراط في الحرب بصيغة او باخرى دون مراعاة لقاعدة في قانون او اخلاق . فجور عبرت عنه مواقف وقحة اتخذتها الاطراف المنخرطة في العدوان على سورية و جاءت متزامنة مع تصعيد ميداني في اداء الجماعات المسلحة و تكثيف جرائمها ، و سجل هنا السعي العلني من قبل الثنائي الاروبي فرنسا –بريطانيا ، لتسليح المعارضة السورية ثم زج القوى التي تم تدريبها في الاردن على يد الاميركيين و الاروبيين زجها في المعركة في جنوب سورية في مسعى لاقتطاع درعا و ريفها و وضعها تحت سيطرة تلك الجماعات . ثم كان التلويح الاميركي و الاطلسي او التسريبات بان هناك خطط وضعت او قيد الاعداد من اجل التدخل العسكري المباشر في سورية تسريبات واكبت قرارات العار العربي التي اتخذتها قمة عربان الدوحة الداعية الى امداد القتلة بالسلاح و كل انواع الذخائر الفتاكة لقتل الشعب السوري .

لقد ادركت روسيا بان هناك حبكة خداع غربية صهيونية مركبة ، تريد منها اميركا الايحاء بانها جادة في الحل السلمي و تبعث في نفس القوى المدافعة عن سورية ما يخدرها ، ثم تقوم بالعمل العسكري المتتابع بما يفرغ العملية السلمية من محتواها و يضع الجميع امام الامر الواقع في الميدان حيث تكون الجماعات المسلحة – كما تخطط اميركا – قد استولت على اكثر المناطق و حاصرت دمشق ، ثم تاتي و لتتسلم السلطة ما يدعى انها حكومة انتقالية انشأتها اميركا و ادعت التمثيل و طالبت الحلف الاطلسي بالتدخل…. في سيناريو يبدو ان من وضعه لا زال منفصلا عن الوتاقع و لكن يبدو انه هو المعتمد من قبل قيادة العدوان .

هنا ادركت روسيا بان على القوى المدافعة – كل في نطاق الدائرة التي يتحرك فيها – على تلك تلقوى القيام بما يلزم لافشال الخطة الاميركية و توجيه الرسائل الحازمة بان الخديعة تلك لن تمر و لان القرار السياسي لا يكون له وزن او قيمة ان لم يكن مستندا الى قوة تحميه لذا كان التصرف الميداني الضروري و جاء الرد من قبل القوى كل في نطاقه كما يلي :

1) على الصعيد السوري تنامى العمل في الاستراتيجية المتبعة في الدفاع عن سورية ، و هي الاستراتيجية التي اذهلت الغرب كونها بنيت على ذهنية المواجهة الطويلة النفس ، عبر الاقتصاد بالقوى ما امكن ، و اعتماد مبدأ المشاغلة و منع استقرار المسلحين في اي مكان دخلوا اليه ، و اخيرا تكامل العمل الدفاعي بين وحدات الجيش العربي السوري و القوى الشعبية التي انتظمت في جيش الدفاع الوطني ما ادى الى تحقيق انجازات هامة في المعركة الدفاعية القائمة .

2) على الصعيد الروسي ، بعد تبني قمة البريكس التي انعقدت في جنوبي افريقيا ، تبنيها منطق سورية و روسيا القائم على الدعوة للحوار و الحل السلمي و رفض تسليح المعارضة و عسكرة المواجهة ، تشددت روسيا في مواقفها و بشكل احدث صدمة في صفوف الخصم حيث انها رفضت قرارات الجامعة العربية الداعية الى تسليح المعارضة و اعتبرت ان مثل هذه الدعوة المخالفة لوظيفة الجامعة و لقواعد القانون الدولي العالم ، تؤدي و بشكل قاطع الى فقدان الجامعة العربية لاي دور في الحل السلمي للازمة السورية ، ثم و تتويجا لكل ما ذكر جاءت مناورات البحر الاسود لتوجه رسالة قاطعة بالغة بان روسيا لن تكتفي بالعمل السياسي و التمنيات و النصح و الارشاد ، بل انها جاهزة ان اقتضى الامر لعمل ميداني ان اقتضى الدفاع عن مواقفها السياسية مثل ذلك .

3) اما على صعيد من تبقى من محور المقاومة فقد كانت التحضيرات و الاستعداد لاي طارئ و الحركة في الميدان تحت مراقبة الاقمار الصناعية الاميركية و الاسرائيلية كفيلة بايصال رسالة قصيرة و سريعة مفادها “لا تجربونا ” فاننا جاهزون و الحرب ان اندلعت فلن يكون لها ضواط او حدود .

ويبدو ان الخصم استوعب ردات الفعل و استوعب الرسائل حيث احدثت السلوكيات الدفاعية تلك مفاعليها المقصودة لذا وجدنا كيف ان فرنسا التي ابدت الحماس المنقطع النظير قبل اسبوع لتسليج الارهابيين عادت و تراجعت عن الامر بعد التطور الذي حصل ، و كيف ان بريطانيا بلعت لسانها ، و كيف ان الاطلسي نفى نيته او رغبته او حتى تفكيره باي تدخل عسكري في سورية و سفه الدمية المسماة ائتلاف معارضة سورية ، في طلبها لاقامة حظر جوي فوق الشمال السوري . و اخيرا كان التباكي الاسرائيلي على خسائر فادحة قد تقع في اسرائيل في الحرب القادمة التي ستمطر فيها اسرائيل بالف صاروخ يوميا ، و لن تخرج منها الا جريحة لا تقوى على لأم جراحها .

وعليه يمكن ان نقول ان خطة اميركا التي قررت تنفيذها في الاشهر الثلاثة المقبلة يبدو انها سقطت في الاسابيع الاولى لانطلاقها و اجهضتها متانة البنية الدفاعية في الداخل السوري ، و صلابة المواقف الجادة للمنظومة الاقليمية و الدولية التي ترفض ان ينجح العدوان على سورية في تحقيق اهدافه ، فهل يؤدي هذا السقوط الى تراجع المخطط و اختصار المهل و السعي الى الحل السلمي بصدق ام سيتابع التنفيذ ضمن المهلة الاصلية التي حددها ؟

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